失敗是成功之母。科學發(fā)現(xiàn)的奧秘也在于犯錯誤。

任何科學發(fā)現(xiàn)都是建立在錯誤的發(fā)現(xiàn)基礎之上的。當我們發(fā)現(xiàn)錯誤，改正錯誤以后，下一個發(fā)現(xiàn)可能會帶給我們意想不到的驚喜。

Now, people have a lot of misconceptions about science --

人們對于科學有很多誤解——

about how it works and what it is.

關于科學原理和科學的含義。

A big one is that science is just a big old pile of facts.

一個最大的誤解是， 科學只是一大堆陳舊的事實。

But that’s not true -- that’s not even the goal of science.

但這并不正確 ——這甚至不是科學的目的。

Science is a process.

科學是一個過程。

It’s a way of thinking.

它是一種思考方式。

Gathering facts is just a piece of it, but it’s not the goal.

收集事實只是其中一步， 但并非目的。

The ultimate goal of science is to understand objective reality

科學的最終目的 是用我們所知道的最優(yōu)方法

the best way we know how,

來理解客觀事實，

and that’s based on evidence.

即要以證據(jù)為基礎。

The problem here is that people are flawed.

問題在于，人類是有缺陷的。

We can be fooled --

我們可能被愚弄——

we’re really good at fooling ourselves.

我們真的很擅長欺騙自己。

And so baked into this process is a way of minimizing our own bias.

所以，融入科學的探究過程， 是一種將偏見最小化的方法。

So sort of boiled down more than is probably useful,

總結(jié)起來說可能更好，

here’s how this works.

科學的原理如下。

If you want to do some science,

如果你想要做點科學研究，

what you want to do is you want to observe something ...

觀察一些事物…

say, 'The sky is blue. Hey, I wonder why?'

舉例來說，“天空是藍的， 我很好奇為什么是這樣？”

You question it.

你提出疑問。

The next thing you do is you come up with an idea that may explain it:

下一步你要做的 是提出一個可能的解釋：

a hypothesis.

一個假設。

Well, you know what? Oceans are blue.

首先，海水是藍的。

Maybe the sky is reflecting the colors from the ocean.

也許天空反射了海洋的藍色。

Great, but now you have to test it

很好，但現(xiàn)在你得檢驗它，

so you predict what that might mean.

去推測這意味著什么。

Your prediction would be,

你的預測可能是，

Well, if the sky is reflecting the ocean color,

“哦，如果天空反射了海洋的顏色，

it will be bluer on the coasts

那么海水在海邊的顏色

than it will be in the middle of the country.'

要比在一個國家的內(nèi)陸部分更藍?！?/p>

OK, that’s fair enough,

好的，這很合理，

but you’ve got to test that prediction

但你得驗證那個預測，

so you get on a plane, you leave Denver on a nice gray day,

于是你坐上飛機，在一個 灰蒙蒙的好日子里離開丹佛，

you fly to LA, you look up and the sky is gloriously blue.

飛到洛杉磯，望向天空， 天空映襯著壯麗的蔚藍色。

Hooray, your thesis is proven.

太好了，你的論點被證明了。

But is it really? No.

但真是這樣嗎？不是。

You’ve made one observation.

你做了一個觀察。

You need to think about your hypothesis, think about how to test it

你得對這個假設進行斟酌， 思考如何檢驗它，

and do more than just one.

還要重復多次。

Maybe you could go to a different part of the country

也許你可以去這個國家的其他地方，

or a different part of the year

或者在一年的不同時間去，

and see what the weather’s like then.

看看那時的天氣如何。

Another good idea is to talk to other people.

另一個好主意是和其他人聊聊。

They have different ideas, different perspectives,

他們有不同的想法，不同的視角，

and they can help you.

他們可以幫助到你。

This is what we call peer review.

這就是我們所稱的同行評議。

And in fact that will probably also save you a lot of money and a lot of time,

事實上，這也會幫你省下 很大一筆錢和時間，

flying coast-to-coast just to check the weather.

不必只為了看看天氣兩頭飛。

Now, what happens if your hypothesis does a decent job but not a perfect job?

那么如果你的假設很好， 但不是很完美怎么辦？

Well, that’s OK,

這不是大問題，

because what you can do is you can modify it a little bit

因為你可以對它進行一點修正，

and then go through this whole process again --

然后再把整個流程走一遍——

make predictions, test them --

做預測，檢驗它——

and as you do that over and over again, you will hone this idea.

隨著你一遍又一遍地重復， 你的假設便會被優(yōu)化。

And if it gets good enough,

如果它變得足夠好了，

it may be accepted by the scientific community,

可能會被科學界采納，

at least provisionally,

至少暫時性地，

as a good explanation of what’s going on,

作為一種對此自然現(xiàn)象的合理解釋，

at least until a better idea

直到有更好的觀點

or some contradictory evidence comes along.

或者出現(xiàn)了一些與之相矛盾的證據(jù)。

Now, part of this process is admitting when you’re wrong.

科學探究過程的一部分 就是承認你的錯誤。

And that can be really, really hard.

這真的非常、非常難。

Science has its strengths and weaknesses

科學有其優(yōu)勢和不足，

and they depend on this.

而它依賴于錯誤。

One of the strengths of science is that it’s done by people,

科學的優(yōu)點之一是， 它是由人來完成的，

and it’s proven itself to do a really good job.

長久以來我們獲得的 科學成就也毋庸置疑。

We understand the universe pretty well because of science.

因為科學，我們對宇宙 有非常不錯的認知。

One of science’s weaknesses is that it’s done by people,

而科學的一個不足也恰恰是， 它是由人來完成的，

and we bring a lot of baggage along with us when we investigate things.

當我們調(diào)查研究的時候， 會帶著很多包袱。

We are egotistical,

我們是任性主觀的，

we are stubborn, we’re superstitious,

我們固執(zhí)且迷信，

we’re tribal, we’re humans --

我們是群聚動物，我們是人類——

these are all human traits and scientists are humans.

這些都是人的特點，而科學家也是人。

And so we have to be aware of that when we’re studying science

所以在研究和做出假設時，

and when we’re trying to develop our theses.

我們要意識到這一點。

But part of this whole thing,

但這整件事的一部分，

part of this scientific process,

整個科學過程的一部分，

part of the scientific method,

整個科學方法的一部分，

is admitting when you’re wrong.

在于要承認自己在哪里犯了錯。

I know, I’ve been there.

我曾經(jīng)有過這樣的經(jīng)歷。

Many years ago I was working on Hubble Space Telescope,

許多年前，我在 哈勃太空望遠鏡項目工作，

and a scientist I worked with came to me with some data,

有個一起共事的 科學家?guī)е鴶?shù)據(jù)來找我，

and he said, 'I think there may be a picture

他說：“我認為這個數(shù)據(jù)表明

of a planet orbiting another star in this data.'

可能有顆行星圍繞另一顆恒星轉(zhuǎn)。”

We had not had any pictures taken of planets orbiting other stars yet,

人們當時還沒有拍到行星 繞其他恒星轉(zhuǎn)的照片，

so if this were true,

所以如果這個是真的，

then this would be the first one

就會是世界上的首次發(fā)現(xiàn)，

and we would be the ones who found it.

并且我們就是發(fā)現(xiàn)它的人。

That’s a big deal.

這可了不得。

I was very excited,

我非常激動，

so I just dug right into this data.

所以我就深入研究了這些數(shù)據(jù)。

I spent a long time trying to figure out if this thing were a planet or not.

我花了很長的時間去搞清楚 這個東西是不是行星。

The problem is planets are faint and stars are bright,

問題是行星很暗，恒星很亮，

so trying to get the signal out of this data

所以試圖從這些數(shù)據(jù)中獲取信號

was like trying to hear a whisper in a heavy metal concert --

就像在重金屬音樂會上聽到耳語一樣。

it was really hard.

真是非常難。

I tried everything I could,

我想盡了一切辦法，

but after a month of working on this,

但忙了一個月后，

I came to a realization ... couldn’t do it.

我意識到…我做不到。

I had to give up.

我不得不放棄。

And I had to tell this other scientist,

我得告訴其他科學家，

The data’s too messy.

“數(shù)據(jù)太混亂了，

We can’t say whether this is a planet or not.'

我們無法確定這是不是行星?！?/p>

And that was hard.

承認這件事真的非常難。

Then later on we got follow-up observations with Hubble,

后來我們用哈勃望遠鏡做了后續(xù)觀測，

and it showed that it wasn’t a planet.

結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)它并不是一顆行星，

It was a background star or galaxy, something like that.

只是個類似于背景恒星或星系的東西。

Well, not to get too technical, but that sucked.

我不想說得太專業(yè)， 但那真是太糟糕了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I was really unhappy about this.

我對此真的非常失落。

But that’s part of it.

但就這是科學的一部分。

You have to say, 'Look, you know, we can’t do this with the data we have.'

你不得不承認，“看吧， 我們無法用現(xiàn)有數(shù)據(jù)進行分析。”

And then I had to face up to the fact

隨后我還得面對

that even the follow-up data showed we were wrong.

后續(xù)的數(shù)據(jù)證明 我們是錯的這個事實。

Emotionally I was pretty unhappy.

情感上，我非常失落。

But if a scientist is doing their job correctly,

但如果一個科學家正確地進行了研究，

being wrong is not so bad

犯了錯誤并不是壞事，

because that means there’s still more stuff out there --

因為這意味著 在此之外還有更多事物——

more things to figure out.

更多的東西等待著我們?nèi)ヌ剿鳌?/p>

Scientists don’t love being wrong but we love puzzles,

科學家不喜歡犯錯，但我們喜歡謎題，

and the universe is the biggest puzzle of them all.

而宇宙就是最大的迷題。

Now having said that,

話雖如此，

if you have a piece and it doesn’t fit no matter how you move it,

如果你有一小塊拼圖， 但怎么擺弄都拼不上，

jamming it in harder isn’t going to help.

硬插進去并沒有用。

There’s going to be a time when you have to let go of your idea

如果你想要理解更大的概念，

if you want to understand the bigger picture.

就得放棄目前所持有的觀點。

The price of doing science is admitting when you’re wrong,

科學研究的代價就是 當你犯錯時要承認，

but the payoff is the best there is:

但這件事的回報是最好的：

knowledge and understanding.

知識和理解。

And I can give you a thousand examples of this in science,

我可以給你上千個科學案例，

but there’s one I really like.

但其中有一個我真的很喜歡。

It has to do with astronomy,

這當然與天文學有關，

and it was a question that had been plaguing astronomers

這個問題一直困擾了天文學家

literally for centuries.

好幾個世紀。

When you look at the Sun, it seems special.

太陽看起來很特別。

It is the brightest object in the sky,

它是天空中最亮的物體，

but having studied astronomy, physics, chemistry, thermodynamics for centuries,

但是經(jīng)過了幾個世紀的天文學， 物理學，化學，熱力學研究后，

we learned something very important about it.

我們了解到了一些 關于太陽的重要信息。

It’s not that special.

它不再那么特別了。

It’s a star just like millions of other stars.

它不過跟其他數(shù)百萬個恒星一樣。

But that raises an interesting question.

但這又引申出了一個有趣的問題。

If the Sun is a star

如果太陽是恒星，

and the Sun has planets,

并且太陽有行星，

do these other stars have planets?

其他恒星會有行星嗎？

Well, like I said with my own failure in the 'planet' I was looking for,

像我提到的在尋找“行星”上的失敗經(jīng)歷，

finding them is super hard,

找到它們真的非常難，

but scientists tend to be pretty clever people

但科學家往往非常聰明，

and they used a lot of different techniques

他們會應用很多不同的技術(shù)

and started observing stars.

觀察恒星。

And over the decades

幾十年后，

they started finding some things that were pretty interesting,

他們開始發(fā)現(xiàn)一些真正有趣的東西，

right on the thin, hairy edge of what they were able to detect.

就在他們能夠探測到的 薄而粗糙的邊緣。

But time and again, it was shown to be wrong.

但事實一再證明，這是錯的。

That all changed in 1991.

事態(tài)在1991年才完全改變。

A couple of astronomers --

幾位天文學家——

Alexander Lyne -- Andrew Lyne, pardon me --

亞歷山大·萊恩—— 安德魯·萊恩，對不起——

and Matthew Bailes,

和馬修·貝爾斯，

had a huge announcement.

發(fā)布了一項重大聲明。

They had found a planet orbiting another star.

他們發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個繞著 另一顆恒星旋轉(zhuǎn)的行星。

And not just any star, but a pulsar,

不是隨便一顆恒星，而是脈沖星，

and this is the remnant of a star that has previously exploded.

這是之前爆炸過的恒星的殘骸。

It’s blasting out radiation.

它在爆炸時釋放了大量輻射。

This is the last place in the universe you would expect to find a planet,

這是宇宙中你最不可能 找到行星的地方。

but they had very methodically looked at this pulsar,

但他們非常系統(tǒng)地 觀察了這顆脈沖星，

and they detected the gravitational tug of this planet as it orbited the pulsar.

當這顆行星繞脈沖星旋轉(zhuǎn)時， 他們探測到了它的引力。

It looked really good.

這看起來真的很棒。

The first planet orbiting another star had been found ...

第一顆繞另一顆恒星 運行的行星被發(fā)現(xiàn)了…

except not so much.

只是沒有那么多。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

After they made the announcement,

在他們發(fā)布公告后，

a bunch of other astronomers commented on it,

其他一些天文學家對此發(fā)表了評論，

and so they went back and looked at their data

于是他們仔細地回去查看數(shù)據(jù)，

and realized they had made a very embarrassing mistake.

并意識到自己犯了 一個非常尷尬的錯誤。

They had not accounted for some very subtle characteristics

他們沒有考慮到地球繞太陽的運動中

of the Earth’s motion around the Sun,

一些非常不明顯的特征，

which affected how they measured this planet going around the pulsar.

這些特征影響了他們測量這顆行星 繞脈沖星運行的方式。

And it turns out that when they did account for it correctly,

結(jié)果，當他們做了正確的計算時，

poof -- their planet disappeared.

糟糕——他們的行星消失了。

It wasn’t real.

它其實并不存在的。

So Andrew Lyne had a very formidable task.

安德魯·萊恩有個非常艱巨的任務，

He had to admit this.

他得承認錯誤。

So in 1992 at the American Astronomical Society meeting,

于是在1992年美國天文學會會議，

which is one of the largest gatherings of astronomers on the planet,

這個全世界最大的天文學會議上，

he stood up and announced that he had made a mistake

他站起來并宣布他犯了個錯誤，

and that the planet did not exist.

那顆行星并不存在。

And what happened next --

接下來發(fā)生的是——

oh, I love this --

太讓我激動了——

what happened next was wonderful.

接下來的一幕很讓人難忘。

He got an ovation.

他得到了熱烈的掌聲。

The astronomers weren’t angry at him;

天文學家們并沒有對他表示憤怒；

they didn’t want to chastise him.

他們不想譴責他，

They praised him for his honesty and his integrity.

而是贊揚了他的誠實和正直。

I love that!

我非常喜歡這一點！

Scientists are people.

科學家也是人。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And it gets better!

事情在變得越來越好！

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Lyne steps off the podium.

萊恩從講臺上走下來后，

The next guy to come up is a man named Aleksander Wolszczan

下一位上臺的人是亞歷山大·沃爾茲森，

He takes the microphone and says,

他拿起麥克風說道，

Yeah, so Lyne’s team didn’t find a pulsar planet,

“很遺憾，萊恩的團隊沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)脈沖星，

but my team found not just one

但我的團隊發(fā)現(xiàn)了不止一個，

but two planets orbiting a different pulsar.

而是兩顆行星圍繞不同的脈沖星運行。

We knew about the problem that Lyne had,

我們知道萊恩存在的問題，

we checked for it, and yeah, ours are real.'

我們仔細核實了自己的結(jié)果， 我們的結(jié)果是真的?！?/p>

And it turns out he was right.

結(jié)果他是對的。

And in fact, a few months later,

事實上，幾個月后，

they found a third planet orbiting this pulsar

他們發(fā)現(xiàn)了第三顆繞著 這顆脈沖星的行星，

and it was the first exoplanet system ever found --

這是迄今為止發(fā)現(xiàn)的 第一個系外行星系統(tǒng)——

what we call alien worlds -- exoplanets.

我們稱之為外星世界——系外行星。

That to me is just wonderful.

這對我來說太棒了。

At that point the floodgates were opened.

從那時起，就好像 泄洪閥門被打開了一樣。

In 1995 a planet was found around a star more like the Sun,

1995年，一個行星被發(fā)現(xiàn) 繞著類似太陽的恒星運行，

and then we found another and another.

隨后我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個又一個。

This is an image of an actual planet orbiting an actual star.

這是一顆圍繞恒星運行的行星圖像。

We kept getting better at it.

我們做得越來越好。

We started finding them by the bucketload.

我們開始成批成批地找到它們，

We started finding thousands of them.

數(shù)量達到了幾千個。

We built observatories specifically designed to look for them.

我們建造了專門用來 尋找它們的天文臺。

And now we know of thousands of them.

利用這些天文臺， 我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了數(shù)千顆行星。

We even know of planetary systems.

我們甚至了解了行星系統(tǒng)。

That is actual data, animated, showing four planets orbiting another star.

這是真實的數(shù)據(jù)，動畫顯示了 圍繞另一顆恒星運行的四顆行星。

This is incredible. Think about that.

真是難以置信，想想看吧。

For all of human history,

縱觀人類歷史，

you could count all the known planets in the universe on two hands --

用兩只手就可以算出 宇宙中所有的行星——

nine -- eight?

9——8個？

Nine? Eight -- eight.

9個？8——8個。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Eh.

呃。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But now we know they’re everywhere.

但現(xiàn)在我們知道它們到處都是。

Every star --

每個恒星——

for every star you see in the sky there could be three, five, ten planets.

每個你在天空看到的星星， 都可能擁有3，5，10個行星。

The sky is filled with them.

它們布滿了天空。

We think that planets may outnumber stars in the galaxy.

我們認為行星的數(shù)量可能 超過星系中的恒星。

This is a profound statement,

這是一個意義重大的結(jié)論，

and it was made because of science.

這全要歸功于科學。

And it wasn’t made just because of science and the observatories and the data;

得出這個結(jié)論不止要歸功于 科學研究和數(shù)據(jù)觀測；

it was made because of the scientists who built the observatories,

能得出這個結(jié)論要歸功于 建造了天文臺的科學家，

who took the data,

他們得到了數(shù)據(jù)，

who made the mistakes and admitted them

他們犯了錯誤并承認了錯誤，

and then let other scientists build on their mistakes

然后讓其他科學家 在他們的錯誤之上前進，

so that they could do what they do

所以他們可以做到力所能及的事，

and figure out where our place is in the universe.

并去弄清楚我們在宇宙中的位置。

That is how you find the truth.

這就是你發(fā)現(xiàn)真相的方式。

Science is at its best when it dares to be human.

當科學敢于為人時， 它就處于最佳狀態(tài)。

Thank you.

謝謝。