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華爾街卷土重來

 cz6688 2016-08-21
Investment banks
投資銀行


Wall Street is back
華爾街卷土重來


American investment banks dominate global finance once more. That's not necessarily good for America
美國(guó)投資銀行再次主導(dǎo)全球金融市場(chǎng)未必是好事


May 11th 2013 |From the print edition



FOR a few tense weeks in 2008, as investment-bank executives huddled  behind the imposing doors of the New York Federal Reserve, Wall Street  seemed to be collapsing around them. Lehman Brothers filed for  bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch collapsed into the arms of Bank of America.  American International Group (AIG) and Citigroup had to be bailed out  and the rot seemed to be spreading. Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary  at the time, recalled in his memoir that: “Lose Morgan Stanley and  Goldman Sachs would be next in line—if they fell the financial system  might vaporise.”


在2008年那幾周驚心動(dòng)魄的日子里,正當(dāng)投資銀行高管們?cè)诩~約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行的大門后擠成一團(tuán)之時(shí),四周的華爾街似乎正在分崩離析。雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)了,美林 落入了美銀的掌控之中,美國(guó)國(guó)際集團(tuán)(AIG)和花旗集團(tuán)被迫接受了政府的救助,到處都在散發(fā)著死尸的氣味。時(shí)任美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)亨利·保爾森在回憶錄中寫道: “接下來將是摩根士丹利,然后是高盛——如果它們倒了,金融系統(tǒng)將灰飛煙滅?!?br>

Across the Atlantic, European politicians saw this as the timely  comeuppance of American capitalism. Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor,  blamed her peers in Washington for not having regulated banks and hedge  funds more rigorously. European banks saw the crisis as their chance to  get one up on the American banks that had long dominated international  finance. Barclays quickly pounced on the carcass of Lehman Brothers,  buying its American operations in what Bob Diamond, the head of its  investment bank at the time, called “an incredible opportunity” to gain  entry to the American market. Deutsche Bank, a German giant, also  expanded to take market share from American rivals. The dominance that  American firms had long exerted over global capital markets seemed to  have come to an abrupt end.


在大西洋彼岸,歐洲政客們把這次危機(jī)看做是對(duì)美式資本主義的及時(shí)懲罰,德國(guó)總理默克爾指責(zé)華盛頓同行未對(duì)銀行和對(duì)沖基金實(shí)施更加嚴(yán)厲的監(jiān)管;銀行家們把危 機(jī)看成是掀翻長(zhǎng)期主宰國(guó)際資本市場(chǎng)的美國(guó)銀行的機(jī)會(huì)。巴克萊銀行二話沒說就撲向雷曼兄弟的尸體,按照該銀行時(shí)任總裁鮑勃·戴蒙德的說法,它們利用“一次令 人難以置信的機(jī)會(huì)”將雷曼的美國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)收入囊中,從而獲準(zhǔn)進(jìn)入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)。德國(guó)巨頭德意志銀行也通過從美國(guó)對(duì)手那里收購(gòu)市場(chǎng)份額實(shí)現(xiàn)了擴(kuò)張。美國(guó)銀行長(zhǎng)期以來 在全球資本市場(chǎng)上那種呼風(fēng)喚雨的作用似乎在一夜之間啞然而止。

Almost five years on it is Europe's banks that are on their knees and  Wall Street that is resurgent. Switzerland's two biggest banks, UBS and  Credit Suisse, which were expanding fast before the crisis, are still  shedding assets. Royal Bank of Scotland, which for a brief time broke  into the ranks of the world's ten-biggest investment banks, remains a  ward of the British government. The share of the investment-banking  market held by European banks has slumped by a fifth since the crisis  (see our special report), with many of the gains going to Wall Street's  surviving behemoths. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup alone  account for a third of the industry's revenues. Two European outfits,  Barclays and Deutsche Bank, have managed to share in some of these  spoils since the crisis. Both, however, face hostile regulations at home  and abroad that seem likely to crimp their global ambitions. And  although HSBC has increased its share of some investment-banking  markets, it is still well behind Wall Street's titans.


如今,這一幕已經(jīng)過去將近五年,俯首稱臣的依舊是歐洲銀行,而華爾街已經(jīng)東山再起。危機(jī)前快速擴(kuò)張的兩家瑞士大銀行——瑞士銀行和瑞士信貸銀行仍在剝離資 產(chǎn),曾短暫躋身全球十大投行之列的蘇格蘭皇家銀行仍處在英國(guó)政府的監(jiān)護(hù)之下。自危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,歐洲投行的市場(chǎng)份額已經(jīng)縮水五分之一,市場(chǎng)的大部分利潤(rùn)都被幸 存的華爾街大鱷賺走,其中僅摩根大通、高盛和花旗集團(tuán)的收入就占到該行業(yè)總收入的三分之一。兩家歐洲大銀行——巴克萊銀行和德意志銀行一直試圖分享一些危 機(jī)戰(zhàn)利品。但是,這兩家銀行都面臨著來自國(guó)內(nèi)外的敵意監(jiān)管,而這些敵意監(jiān)管似乎有可能讓他們的全球野心受挫。雖說匯豐銀行在部分投行市場(chǎng)中的份額有所增 長(zhǎng),但是它仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)地落在華爾街巨頭的身后。

What America got right
美國(guó)贏在何處


The industry over which Wall Street is reasserting itself is very  different from the one it dominated half a decade ago. Revenues globally  have fallen by about $100 billion, or almost a third. Employment has  plunged, with London alone shedding 100,000 jobs. Pay has fallen too.  Higher capital requirements and other regulations, including America's  absurdly complicated (and still unfinished) Dodd-Frank act, are likely  to erode the profitability of the industry. The stellar returns earned  by banks before the crisis and the massive rewards paid to their  employees are unlikely to recur soon, if at all.


同五年前由華爾街掌舵時(shí)相比,如今這個(gè)他們?cè)俣热〉冒l(fā)言權(quán)的行業(yè)已經(jīng)發(fā)生了天翻地覆的變化。投資銀行的全球總收入已經(jīng)減少了近三分之一,約為1000億美 元。從業(yè)人數(shù)大幅下滑,其中僅倫敦一地就失去了10000個(gè)工作崗位。工資水平同樣難以幸免。更高的資本金要求以及其他一些監(jiān)管措施,可能會(huì)侵蝕這一行業(yè) 的盈利能力,包括尚未完成的既荒唐又復(fù)雜的多德-弗蘭克法案。銀行在危機(jī)前賺取巨額利潤(rùn)和給員工發(fā)放大筆獎(jiǎng)金的情況可能再也不會(huì)出現(xiàn)。

One of the reasons that American banks are doing better is that they  took the pain, and dealt with it, faster. The American authorities acted  quickly, making their banks write down bad debts and rapidly raise more  capital. Those that proved unwilling or unable, and even those, like  Goldman, that claimed they didn't need it were force-fed additional  capital. As a result America's big banks have been able to return to  profitability, pay back the government and support lending in the  economy. This has helped them contribute to an economic revival that in  turn is holding down bad debts.


美國(guó)銀行之所以表現(xiàn)突出,原因之一是他們承認(rèn)失敗和應(yīng)對(duì)失敗的速度比別人都快。危機(jī)發(fā)生后,美國(guó)當(dāng)局反應(yīng)迅速,他們一邊讓銀行減記壞賬,一邊讓他們以極快 的速度籌集了更多的資本金。那些不愿這樣做或者沒有能力這樣做的銀行,甚至那些像高盛一樣宣稱他們不需要救助的銀行,被迫接受了籌集額外資本金的要求。結(jié) 果,美國(guó)大銀行始終都具備恢復(fù)盈利能力、償還政府救助資金和在經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中提供貸款支持的能力。這有助于他們?yōu)榻?jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇做出貢獻(xiàn),而經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇反過來又在減 少他們的壞賬。

European banks, in contrast, are continuing to  and limp along with  insufficient capital. Citigroup alone has flushed through $143 billion  of loan losses; no euro-zone bank has set aside more than $30 billion.  Deutsche Bank, which had insisted it did not need more equity, has at  last faced reality and is raising almost €3 billion ($4 billion).


相比之下,歐洲銀行仍在持續(xù)縮減他們的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表,仍在資本金不充足的情況下蹣跚前行。僅花旗集團(tuán)一家就沖銷了1430億美元的貸款損失;在歐元區(qū)內(nèi),沒 有一家銀行減記的不良貸款超過300億美元。此前堅(jiān)稱不需要更多權(quán)益資本的德意志銀行到頭來只得面對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí),他們正在籌集將近30億歐元(合40億美元)的 資本金。

What Europe got right
歐洲勝在哪里


European regulators have also contributed to their banks’ decline, in  two ways. First, they are specifying how much banks can pay in bonuses  relative to base pay. Second, they are trying to force banks to hold  more capital and to make it easier to allow them to fail by, for  instance, separating their retail deposits from their wholesale  businesses.


歐洲銀行的衰落也有歐洲監(jiān)管方的“功勞”。這表現(xiàn)在兩個(gè)方面:一,他們對(duì)銀行可以發(fā)放的相對(duì)于底薪的獎(jiǎng)金數(shù)額制定了明確的要求。二,他們不僅試圖強(qiáng)制銀行持有更多的資本金,而且還通過將零售存款從批發(fā)業(yè)務(wù)中分離出來等規(guī)定放松了對(duì)銀行倒閉的要求。

The first approach is foolish. It will drive up the fixed costs of  Europe's banks and reduce their flexibility to cut expenses in  downturns. They will therefore struggle to compete in America or  fast-growing Asian markets with foreign rivals that have the freedom to  pay the going rate for talent. The second approach is sensible.  Switzerland and Britain are making progress in ending the implicit  taxpayer subsidy that supports banks that are too big to fail. The  collapse of Ireland's economy is warning enough of what happens when  governments feel compelled to bail out banks that dwarf their economies.


第一種做法是愚蠢的行為,它將提高歐洲銀行的固定成本,降低他們?cè)谒ネ藭r(shí)期消減開支的靈活性。因此,在同美國(guó)市場(chǎng)和快速增長(zhǎng)的亞洲市場(chǎng)中那些能夠自由地以 現(xiàn)行利率為人才支付薪水的對(duì)手進(jìn)行競(jìng)爭(zhēng)時(shí),歐洲銀行將出于不利的地位。第二種做法是明智的行為。支撐那些“大到不能倒”的銀行的是隱形納稅人補(bǔ)貼,瑞士和 英國(guó)在解決這個(gè)問題上已經(jīng)取得了一些進(jìn)展。當(dāng)政府認(rèn)為他們拯救那些造成經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮的銀行的行為是迫于壓力時(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生什么事情?對(duì)此,愛爾蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)的崩潰給我們足 夠的警示。

Some European bankers argue that the continent needs investment-banking  champions. Yet it is not obvious that European firms or taxpayers gain  from having national banks that are good at packaging and selling  American subprime loans. Indeed, it is American taxpayers and investors  who should worry about the dominance of a few Wall Street firms. They  bear the main risk of future bail-outs. They would benefit from greater  competition in investment banking. IPO fees are much higher in America  than elsewhere (7% v 4%), mainly because the market is dominated by a  few big investment banks.


一些歐洲銀行家認(rèn)為,歐洲大陸需要投資銀行大鱷。然而,歐洲企業(yè)或投資者從建立擅于打包出售美國(guó)次級(jí)抵押貸款的全國(guó)性銀行的行動(dòng)中收獲什么并不明顯。實(shí)際 上,反而是美國(guó)納稅人和投資者應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)那幾家在華爾街呼風(fēng)喚雨的公司保持警惕,他們是未來救助行動(dòng)的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所在。他們可能會(huì)得益于投行界的更多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。美國(guó) 的IPO費(fèi)用比其他任何地區(qū)都要高出許多(7%v4%),這主要是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)市場(chǎng)已被幾個(gè)投行大鱷所霸占。

Wall Street's new titans say they are already penalised by new  international rules that insist they have somewhat bigger capital  buffers than smaller banks because they pose a greater risk to economies  if they fail. Yet the huge economies of scale and implicit subsidies  from being too big to fail more than offset the cost of the buffers.  Increasing the capital surcharges for big banks would do more for the  stability of the financial system than the thicket of Dodd-Frank rules  ever will.


華爾街那些嶄露頭角的大佬們說,他們?cè)缫呀邮馨凑請(qǐng)?jiān)持要求他們持有更多緩沖資本的國(guó)際新規(guī)則對(duì)自己進(jìn)行了整改,這些國(guó)際新規(guī)則之所以這樣做,是因?yàn)榇筱y行 倒閉時(shí)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊要大于小銀行。不過,巨大的規(guī)模效應(yīng)和因大到不能到而獲得的隱形補(bǔ)貼大大抵消了他們的緩沖成本。同將要實(shí)施的錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的多德-弗蘭克規(guī) 則的相比,提高大銀行的資本附加費(fèi)更有利于金融系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定。

Five years on from the frightening summer of 2008, America's big banks  are back, and that is a good thing. But there are still things that  could make Wall Street safer.


2008年那個(gè)令人心悸的夏天已經(jīng)過去了五年。如今,美國(guó)大銀行又卷土重來,這是一件好事情。但是,要想讓華爾街變得更安全,還有許多事情等著我們?nèi)プ觥?br>

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