Israel
以色列

Winning the battle, losing the war

贏了沖突，輸?shù)魬?zhàn)爭

For all its military might, Israel faces a grim future unless it can secure peace
盡管軍事實力強大，但以色列所面對的是一個暗淡的未來，除非它能夠確保和平。

Aug 2nd 2014 | From the print edition of The Economist

譯者：老狒狒

HAMAS has ruled Gaza since 2007 and there is not much to admire. The Islamist party is harsh, narrow-minded and intolerant of dissent. Its charter is anti-Semitic. It fires rockets into Israeli territory and builds tunnels under it to kill or kidnap Israeli soldiers. It knows that the Israeli attacks it provokes will kill hundreds of Palestinian civilians, which will garner sympathy around the world. It is also weaker than it was, for it is now losing the military battle against Israel.

自2007年以來，哈馬斯就在統(tǒng)治加沙。但是，這不是一個太值得崇拜的伊斯蘭政黨。它兇狠殘暴，心胸狹窄，不容異己。它把反對猶太人作為自己的宗旨。它向以色列境內(nèi)發(fā)射火箭彈，為殺死或綁架以軍士兵而在以色列的地下構筑地道。它深知，由它激起的以色列的攻擊會殺死數(shù)以千計的巴勒斯坦平民，這會為它贏得全世界的同情。另外，從它正在輸?shù)襞c以色列的軍事沖突來看，這還說明了另一個問題。那就是：它已經(jīng)一天不如一天了。

By contrast Israel is the most successful state in the Middle East. It is the region's only true democracy—a hub of invention, enterprise and creativity. Israel has overwhelming firepower in the fight in Gaza. Most of its people are united behind their soldiers and have the firm backing of America's Congress. Yet, though Israel is winning the battle, it is struggling in the war for world opinion (see article). That matters in part because Israel is a cosmopolitan trading country that looks to its American ally for security, but also because Israel needs to hear some of what its critics are saying.

相比之下，以色列是中東最成功的國家。它是該地區(qū)唯一一個真正的民主國家，是發(fā)明、創(chuàng)業(yè)和創(chuàng)新的中心。在加沙的戰(zhàn)場上，以色列擁有壓倒性的火力。大多數(shù)國民都團結(jié)在士兵的身后，并且還有美國國會的堅定支持。不過，就在以色列在戰(zhàn)場上取勝的同時，卻在爭取世界輿論的這場戰(zhàn)爭中苦苦掙扎。這一點非常重要。究其原因，一則，以色列是一個其境內(nèi)生活著各種民族的貿(mào)易國家，這種國家大都是向美國盟友尋求安全保障；再者，以色列需要聽取一些輿論的意見。

Anti-Semitism: a very light sleeper
反猶太主義：一個一觸即醒的睡眠者

A generation ago, Israel had the best of the argument with Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organisation, in many ways a less vile outfit than Hamas. Young Europeans spent their gap years on kibbutzim. The Western world cheered when Israeli commandos rescued Jewish hostages from the terminal building in Uganda's Entebbe airport in 1976.

一代人之前，以色列曾在阿拉法特的巴勒斯坦解放組織，這個在許多方面都不如哈馬斯卑劣的組織的身上，贏得過最熱烈的掌聲。歐洲的年輕人在基布茲農(nóng)場中渡過了他們的學業(yè)間隙年。1976年，當以軍突擊隊從烏干達恩德培機場的候機樓中將猶太人人質(zhì)解救出來時，西方世界曾歡呼雀躍 。

But as the occupation of Palestinian territory has dragged on, sympathy has seeped away. In a poll published in June, before the destruction of Gaza, the citizens of 23 countries put the balance of those who think Israel is a good or bad influence on the world at minus 26%, ranking it below Russia and above only North Korea, Pakistan and Iran. A growing number of Europeans call Israel racist (with the sinister flourish that Israelis, of all people, should know better). And even in America, where a solid majority backs Israel, the share that thinks its actions against the Palestinians are unjustified has risen since 2002 by five percentage points, to 39%. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, Israel is backed by just a quarter.

但是，隨著對巴勒斯坦領土的占領一拖再拖，同情心也隨之而去。據(jù)在今年6月加沙遭毀滅之前進行的民調(diào)顯示，在23個國家中，認為以色列對世界有負面影響的公民比例超過認為以色列對世界有正面影響的公民比例26個百分點，這使得以色列在對世界有負面影響的排行榜上的排名，僅次于北韓、巴基斯坦和伊朗，位居俄羅斯之前。在歐洲，越來越多的人認為，以色列是一個所有以色列人都應該有更深了解的邪惡盛行的種族歧視國家。即便是在大多數(shù)人都支持以色列的美國，認為其針對巴勒斯坦人的軍事行動缺乏正當理由的人的比例，已經(jīng)比2000年多出了5個百分點，達到39％。在18－29歲的人群中，以色列所獲得的支持僅為四分之一。

Many Israelis, and their most fervent supporters in Congress, see today's hostility as the culmination of a long process of demonisation, double standards and delegitimisation. They have a point. Holding a country to high standards, as Israel's critics do, can be a compliment—yet against Israel, morality is often used as a cudgel. The common slur that Israel is an apartheid state ignores the fact that Israel's minorities, such as the Druze, Arabs and Bahais, are protected by the country's independent courts—including the highest, which has a sitting Arab Israeli judge. The “BDS” campaign to impose boycotts, encourage divestment and introduce sanctions calls not just for an end to the occupation of the West Bank and for equal rights, but also for the right of return of all Palestinian refugees—in other words, for the erosion of Israel as a Jewish homeland. Protests in France against the fighting in Gaza led to attacks on synagogues and Jewish-owned businesses.

在眾多的以色列人以及他們在美國國會中的最狂熱的支持者看來，今天的這種敵意是一個以妖魔化、雙重標準和去合法化為特點的漫長進程的高潮。他們認為，像以色列的批評者那樣，用高標準來要求一個國家的做法就是“捧殺”。相比之下，以道德來聲討以色列的做法就是“棒殺”。一個常見的妖魔化辦法是把以色列說成是一個種族隔離國家。但是，這種詆毀忽視了這樣一個事實：在以色列占少數(shù)的德魯茲派、阿拉伯人和巴哈伊派都是受到該國包括擁有一位現(xiàn)任的阿拉伯以色列人法官的最高法院在內(nèi)的獨立法庭的保護的。以實施抵制、鼓勵撤資和引入制裁為行動綱領的“BDS”運動，他們所呼吁的，不僅是結(jié)束對西岸的占領和平等的權利，還有所有巴勒斯坦難民回家的權利——換言之，這是對以色列作為猶太人家園這一事實的侵蝕。法國反對加沙戰(zhàn)火的抗議活動導致了對猶太教會堂和猶太人商業(yè)的攻擊。

No wonder that many Israelis feel that the world is against them, and believe that criticism of Israel is often a mask for antipathy towards Jews. But they would be wrong to ignore it entirely. That is partly because public opinion matters. For a trading nation built on the idea of liberty, delegitimisation is, in the words of an Israeli think-tank, “a strategic threat”. But it is also because some of the foreign criticism is right.

這也就難怪許多以色列人會有一種“整個世界都在反對他們”的感覺。這同時讓他們相信，對以色列的批評經(jīng)常是一種帶著面具的對猶太人的反感。但是，如果他們完全忽視這種批評，那就錯了。原因有二。第一，公眾輿論舉足輕重。對于一個以自由理念為立國基礎的貿(mào)易國家來說，去合法化，用一家以色列智庫的話來說是“一種戰(zhàn)略上的威脅”。其次，外人的批評，有些也是正確的。

Please, hear them
請聽取他們的意見

That begins with the scale of the violence in Gaza. Some 1,400 Palestinians have died in the past few weeks, compared with 56 Israeli soldiers and four civilians. Even allowing for Hamas's brutality, no democracy should be happy with a military strategy that results in the death of so many children (let alone the crass claim from Israel's ambassador to Washington that its soldiers deserve a Nobel peace prize). The destruction is driving support towards Hamas and away from the moderate Palestinians who are Israel's best chance for peace.

先從加沙暴力的程度說起。在過去的幾周中，已經(jīng)有大約1400名巴勒斯坦人死亡。相比之下，以色列方面有56名士兵和4名平民死亡。就算把哈馬斯的殘暴考慮在內(nèi)，任何一個民主國家也不應該對造成如此之多的兒童死亡的軍事戰(zhàn)略感到高興，更不用提以色列駐華盛頓大使有關以軍士兵應當獲得諾貝爾和平獎的粗魯聲明了。這種毀滅行為正在促使支持倒向哈馬斯，遠離作為以色列爭取和平的最佳機會的巴勒斯坦溫和派。

But more than that, Israel needs to hear what its critics say about the need for a two-state solution, which remains the only one that will work. Time is not on Israel's side. Palestinians may already outnumber Israelis in the lands they share. Without two states, Israelis and Palestinians will be left with one that contains them both. The risk for Israel is of either a permanent, non-democratic occupation that disenfranchises Palestinians, or a democracy in which Jews are in a minority. Neither would be the Jewish homeland with equal rights for all that Israel's founding fathers intended.

但是，除此之外，以色列還需要聽取輿論在兩國方案之必要性這一問題上所表達的意見。因為，兩國方案仍是未來唯一可行的一種解決辦法。時間不在以色列的一邊。巴勒斯坦人或許早已在數(shù)量上超過了與他們共同生活在這塊土地上的以色列人。拋棄兩國方案，留給以色列人和巴勒斯坦人的將是一個包括他們雙方都在內(nèi)的國家。對以色列而言，風險體現(xiàn)在兩個方面：要么是一種剝奪了巴勒斯坦人公民權的永久的、非民主的占領，要么是一種猶太人在其中占少數(shù)的民主制。在上述兩種選擇中，任何一種不會是以色列國父們所希望的那種所有人都享有平等權利的猶太人家園。

America's secretary of state, John Kerry, has made a Herculean effort to forge peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians along the lines of two states for two peoples. When the talks broke down, a few months ago, he blamed Israel's settler lobby. That outraged right-wing Israelis. And now the left has joined in the derision because he proposed a ceasefire in Gaza that Israelis thought favoured Hamas. But Mr Kerry is right. If Israel continues to build settlements in the occupied territory, it will gobble up land that would belong to an independent Palestinian state, making peace harder to reach.

美國國務卿克里一直在為以色列人和巴勒斯坦人按照兩個民族兩個國家的路線達成和平而付出艱辛的努力。當談判在幾個月前破裂時，他曾把責任歸咎于以色列定居者的游說。這惹惱了以色列的右翼。如今，以色列的左翼也因為克里提出了一個在以色列看來是偏袒哈馬斯的加沙?；鸾ㄗh而加入了嘲笑克里的隊伍。但是，克里是對的。倘若以色列繼續(xù)在占領區(qū)建設定居點，它會蠶食掉本應屬于一個獨立的巴勒斯坦國的土地，使和平更難以達成。

The same goes for what appears to be Israel's strategy towards both Gaza and the West Bank. Having created a huge open-air prison in Gaza, Israel remains committed to a blockade that contains Hamas—but also ensures that ever more Palestinians grow up angry. On the West Bank, Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has gone backwards: he has said that Israel cannot relinquish security control of the West Bank for fear of Islamist attack. That implies an intention to consolidate the occupation, thus withdrawing all hope from Palestinian moderates. The West Bank would be likely to explode too, then, while the demographic clock ticked on.

以色列針對加沙和西岸的策略似乎也犯了同樣的錯誤。在把加沙變成了一個巨大的露天監(jiān)獄后，以色列依舊在對包括哈馬斯在內(nèi)的一個區(qū)域?qū)嵤┓怄i。只是，這種封鎖也在確保越來越多的巴勒斯坦人在仇恨中長大。在西岸問題上，以色列總理內(nèi)塔尼亞胡已經(jīng)做出了讓步。這表現(xiàn)在，他一直在說，以色列不可能因為擔心伊斯蘭主義者的攻擊而放棄對西岸的安全控制。由于這一表態(tài)所暗含意思是說，以色列會強化占領，因而也就澆滅了巴勒斯坦溫和派的所有希望。在這種情況下，西岸的內(nèi)爆是早晚的事。與此同時，人口之鐘卻在嘀嗒作響。

For all the blood and misery in Gaza, Mr Netanyahu will soon have a chance to show he has heard the critics. Having won his battle, he could return to the negotiating table, this time with a genuine offer of peace. Every true friend of Israel should press him to do so.

鑒于加沙的流血和苦難，過不了多久，內(nèi)塔尼亞胡就會有機會展示他已經(jīng)聽進了批評。已經(jīng)在戰(zhàn)場上獲勝的他，可能會回到談判桌上。只是，這一次，他可能會帶著一份真誠的和平提議而來。每一位以色列的真正朋友都應當敦促他這樣做。

From the print edition: Leaders