The Economist explains

Why the Swiss unpegged the franc

瑞士為何不再讓瑞郎盯住歐元

Jan 18th 2015, 23:50 by C.W. of The Economist

譯者：老狒狒

IN THE world of central banking, slow and predictable decisions are the aim. So on January 15th, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suddenly announced that it would no longer hold the Swiss franc at a fixed exchange rate with the euro, there was panic. The franc soared. On Wednesday one euro was worth 1.2 Swiss francs; at one point on Thursday its value had fallen to just 0.85 francs. A number of hedge funds across the world made big losses. The Swiss stockmarket collapsed. Why did the SNB provoke such chaos?

在央行的世界中，緩慢且可以預(yù)測的決定是目標(biāo)。因此，當(dāng)瑞士國家銀行（SNB即瑞士央行——譯者注）在1月15日突然宣布不再以對歐元的固定匯率持有瑞士法郎（以下簡稱瑞郎——譯者注）時，恐慌出現(xiàn)了。瑞郎出現(xiàn)了暴漲。周三的時候，1歐元還值1.2瑞郎；但是，到周四的時候，1歐元甚至一度跌至只值0.85瑞郎。世界各地有很多對沖基金遭受了慘重的損失。瑞士股市出現(xiàn)了暴跌。那么，瑞士央行為何要主動挑起這種混亂呢？

The SNB introduced the exchange-rate peg in 2011, while financial markets around the world were in turmoil. Investors consider the Swiss franc as a “safe haven” asset, along with American government bonds: buy them and you know your money will not be at risk. Investors like the franc because they think the Swiss government is a safe pair of hands: it runs a balanced budget, for instance. But as investors flocked to the franc, they dramatically pushed up its value. An expensive franc hurts Switzerland because the economy is heavily reliant on selling things abroad: exports of goods and services are worth over 70% of GDP. To bring down the franc's value, the SNB created new francs and used them to buy euros. Increasing the supply of francs relative to euros on foreign-exchange markets caused the franc's value to fall (thereby ensuring a euro was worth 1.2 francs). Thanks to this policy, by 2014 the SNB had amassed about $480 billion-worth of foreign currency, a sum equal to about 70% of Swiss GDP.

瑞士央行是在2011年引入?yún)R率掛鉤制的。其時，全球金融市場正出在動蕩之中。在投資者眼中，瑞郎和美國國債一樣，同是資產(chǎn)的“安全天堂”：買入這兩種資產(chǎn)，你知道你的錢將不會再有風(fēng)險。投資者喜歡瑞郎是因為他們把瑞士政府看作是一雙安全的大手：比如說，政府運營著一套平衡的預(yù)算。但是，隨著投資者涌入瑞郎，他們急劇地推高了瑞郎的幣值。昂貴的瑞郎有害于瑞士，因為他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)嚴(yán)重依賴于對外貿(mào)易：商品和服務(wù)的出口超過GDP的70％。為了拉低瑞郎的幣值，瑞士央行造出了新的瑞郎，并且用這些新造的瑞郎去購買歐元。外匯市場上瑞郎相對于歐元的供應(yīng)增加造成了瑞郎幣值的下跌（因而確保了1歐元值1.2瑞郎）。鑒于這一政策，至2014年年底，瑞士央行積累了大約4800億美元的外匯儲備，相當(dāng)于瑞士GDP的70％。

The SNB suddenly dropped the cap last week for several reasons. First, many Swiss are angry that the SNB has built up such large foreign-exchange reserves. Printing all those francs, they say, will eventually lead to hyperinflation. Those fears are probably unfounded: Swiss inflation is too low, not too high. But it is a hot political issue. In November there was a referendum which, had it passed, would have made it difficult for the SNB to increase its reserves. Second, the SNB risked irritating its critics even more, thanks to something that is happening this Thursday: many expect the European Central Bank to introduce “quantitative easing”. This entails the creation of money to buy the government debt of euro-zone countries. That will push down the value of the euro, which might have required the SNB to print lots more francs to maintain the cap. But there is also a third reason behind the SNB's decision. During 2014 the euro depreciated against other major currencies. As a result, the franc (being pegged to the euro) has depreciated too: in 2014 it lost about 12% of its value against the dollar and 10% against the rupee (though it appreciated against both currencies following the SNB's decision). A cheaper franc boosts exports to America and India, which together make up about 20% of Swiss exports. If the Swiss franc is not so overvalued, the SNB argues, then it has no reason to continue trying to weaken it.

瑞士央行在上周突然放棄了這個上限，其原因有以下幾點。首先，許多瑞士人都對央行構(gòu)建如此龐大的外匯儲備感到憤怒。他們說，這些新印制瑞郎的最終將導(dǎo)致超級通脹。這種擔(dān)心可能是沒有根據(jù)的：瑞士的通脹是太低而不是太高。但是，這是一個熱門的政治話題。瑞士定于今年11月舉行一次全民公投。如果通過，瑞士央行就難以增加外匯儲備了。第二，瑞士央行之所以冒險激怒輿論，是因為本周四將發(fā)生的一件事：許多人希望歐洲央行引入“量化寬松”。量化寬松需要歐洲央行造錢以購買歐元國家的政府債券。這將壓低歐元的幣值，而歐元幣值的降低可能需要瑞士央行印制更多的瑞郎來維持這個上限。但是，瑞士央行這一決定的背后還有第三個原因。在2014年中，歐元對其他主要貨幣都貶值了。作為歐元貶值的一個結(jié)果，（被迫盯住歐元的）瑞郎也貶值了：對美元貶值了大約14％，對盧比10％（盡管瑞郎在瑞士央行公布其決定后對這兩種貨幣都實現(xiàn)了升值）。便宜的瑞郎有利于提高對美國和印度的出口，而瑞士對這兩個國家的出口約占其出口總額的20％。瑞士央行指出，如果瑞郎不是被如此的高估，它就沒有理由去繼續(xù)維持瑞郎的弱勢。

The big question now is how much the removal of the cap will hurt the Swiss economy. The stockmarket fell because Swiss companies will now find it more difficult to sell their wares to European customers (high-rolling Europeans are already complaining about the price of this year's skiing holidays). UBS, a bank, downgraded its forecast for Swiss growth in 2015 from 1.8% to 0.5%. Switzerland will probably remain in deflation. But the SNB should not be lambasted for removing the cap. Rather, it should be criticised for adopting it in the first place. When central banks try to manipulate exchange rates, it almost always ends in tears.

現(xiàn)在的主要問題是取消上限會給瑞士經(jīng)濟(jì)造成多大的傷害。股市之所以出現(xiàn)下跌，是因為瑞士企業(yè)將會發(fā)現(xiàn)，它們會更加難以將自己的產(chǎn)品賣給歐洲消費者（喜歡速降的歐洲人早就對今年滑雪季節(jié)的價格抱怨不已）。瑞銀已將它們對瑞士2015年的增長預(yù)期從1.8%下調(diào)至0.5%。瑞士今后有可能仍舊處于通縮之中。但是，瑞士央行不應(yīng)為取消上限的做法遭到指責(zé)。相反，它應(yīng)當(dāng)為當(dāng)初設(shè)定上限的做法受到批評。當(dāng)一國央行試圖操縱匯率時，最后幾乎總是以痛哭流涕收場。