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★分季度數(shù)據(jù)分析模型（以貴州茅臺最新季度數(shù)據(jù)為例）
[淘股吧]
【 原創(chuàng):茅臺03 2005-08-24 09:27 茅臺03 瀏覽/回復：5046/20】
昨天發(fā)的貼由于粘貼調整次數(shù)太多，有較大的運算錯誤，這里重新貼過，請大家批評補充，以便我及時完善該模型，謝謝！
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| | 貴州茅臺 | 05年中報 | 05年1季報 | 04年年報 | 04年3季報 | 04年中報 | 04年1季報 | 03年年報 | 03年3季報 | 03年中報 | 03年1季報
| | 當季收盤價 | 53.65 | 48.11 | 36.64 | 35.97 | 33.85 | 35.04 | 25.40 | 21.24 | 24.96 | 26.05
| | 贏利能力評分-注1 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 94.16 | 100.00 | 99.06 | 94.84 | 88.98 | 81.17 | 80.66 | 80.83
| | 成長能力評分-注2 | 87.92 | 86.91 | 83.93 | 91.06 | 88.10 | 49.03 | 94.27 | 53.10 | 32.18 | 20.67
| | 估值情況評分-注3 | 55.14 | 62.41 | 62.13 | 63.89 | 77.80 | 75.94 | 82.98 | 86.44 | 73.57 | 70.00
| | 信用情況評分-注4 | 91.22 | 90.27 | 87.66 | 90.52 | 90.86 | 91.19 | 91.10 | 90.57 | 90.16 | 89.70
| | 綜合情況評價-注5 | 84.28 | 85.70 | 82.43 | 87.34 | 89.64 | 76.01 | 89.28 | 75.01 | 65.29 | 60.96
| | 每股收益（元） | 1.22 | 0.94 | 2.09 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 0.95 | 2.13 | 1.29 | 0.92 | 0.79
| | 每股凈資產(chǎn)（元） | 11.82 | 11.54 | 10.60 | 9.83 | 13.77 | 13.45 | 12.51 | 11.64 | 11.27 | 11.16
| | 當季收入占比 | 32.15% | 100.00% | 31.00% | 36.52% | 35.08% | 100.00% | 35.33% | 35.57% | 26.70% | 100.00%
| | 當季利潤占比 | 23.10% | 100.00% | 37.13% | 32.30% | 25.07% | 100.00% | 39.58% | 28.77% | 13.82% | 100.00%
| | 預估全年凈利潤(億) | 11.28 | 11.58 | 8.20 | 8.53 | 8.11 | 7.05 | 5.87 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.98
| | 預估全年每股收益（元） | 2.87 | 2.94 | 2.09 | 2.17 | 2.95 | 2.56 | 2.13 | 1.57 | 1.45 | 1.45
| | 預估全年主營業(yè)務收入(億) | 38.49 | 40.23 | 30.00 | 32.01 | 31.54 | 27.93 | 24.00 | 20.87 | 19.19 | 18.72
| | 市凈率(倍) | 4.54 | 4.17 | 3.46 | 3.66 | 2.46 | 2.60 | 2.03 | 1.83 | 2.21 | 2.33
| | 市銷率(折算為全年數(shù)據(jù)) | 5.48 | 4.70 | 4.80 | 4.42 | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 3.58 | 3.83
| | 市盈率(折算為全年數(shù)據(jù)) | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00
| | 市盈率(倍)(含債調整去息稅)折為全年 | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00
| | ＰＥＧ（以當期ＲＯＥ為增長標準） | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.39
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均凈利增長為標準） | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.48 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 0.35 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均收入增長為標準） | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 0.40 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入
| | 本期主營業(yè)務利潤率 | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.29% | 63.26% | 65.00% | 65.03%
| | 本期綜合業(yè)務利潤率 | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.33% | 63.38% | 65.17% | 65.22%
| | 本期凈利潤率 | 28.47% | 32.27% | 27.33% | 24.90% | 26.56% | 30.66% | 24.45% | 22.84% | 25.25% | 29.69%
| | 本期凈利潤率同比提高率 | 7.19% | 5.25% | 11.81% | 9.03% | 5.19% | 3.27% | 18.99% | 0.83% | 1.39% | 3.47%
| | 預估全年投入資本報酬率 | 24.03% | 25.16% | 19.44% | 21.86% | 21.24% | 18.91% | 16.90% | 13.38% | 12.79% | 12.85%
| | 預估全年股東權益報酬率 | 24.25% | 25.51% | 19.67% | 22.08% | 21.41% | 19.06% | 17.06% | 13.51% | 12.90% | 12.96%
| | 當季權益報酬率 | 2.44% | 8.85% | 7.88% | 4.40% | 2.36% | 7.60% | 7.26% | 3.29% | 1.14% | 7.63%
| | 當季權益報酬率同比變化率 | 3.30% | 16.44% | 8.60% | 33.59% | 108.03% | -0.34% | 203.95% | 28.32% | -2.77% | -6.30%
| | 股本同比變動率 | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00%
| | 可持續(xù)增長率 | 23.57% | 28.61% | 14.95% | 20.63% | 22.11% | 23.14% | 14.66% | 14.90% | 15.63% | 18.10%
| | 總收入同比增長率 | 28.31% | 34.11% | 25.00% | 33.38% | 31.40% | 16.37% | 30.86% | 13.78% | 4.64% | 2.09%
| | 凈利潤同比增長率 | 37.54% | 41.16% | 39.76% | 45.42% | 38.22% | 20.17% | 55.71% | 14.72% | 6.09% | 5.63%
| | 稅前利潤同比增長率 | 32.84% | 39.38% | 52.51% | 46.88% | 38.61% | 17.15% | 50.54% | 12.93% | 2.75% | 1.02%
| | 總市值環(huán)比增長率 | 11.52% | 31.30% | 1.86% | 51.96% | -3.40% | 37.95% | 19.59% | -14.90% | -4.18% | 2.32%
| | 債務杠桿 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.53 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.27 | 1.27
| | 生息負債率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 資產(chǎn)負債率 | 30.90% | 30.94% | 34.59% | 31.35% | 24.84% | 23.79% | 30.61% | 28.35% | 21.32% | 21.28%
| | 每股生息負債(元) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00
| | 生息債務占負債比率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 實際所得稅率 | 33.56% | 31.13% | 42.72% | 38.57% | 36.10% | 32.45% | 37.72% | 37.98% | 36.19% | 33.97%
| | 凈利潤現(xiàn)金含量 | 90.96% | 65.63% | 119.00% | 72.49% | -10.88% | -69.36% | 160.56% | 123.84% | -13.45% | 4.14%
| | 主營業(yè)務收入現(xiàn)金含量 | 105.24% | 94.14% | 103.89% | 101.99% | 94.96% | 82.70% | 108.90% | 114.55% | 98.55% | 73.16%
| | 每股營運資金(元) | 7.50 | 7.42 | 6.65 | 6.20 | 8.79 | 8.71 | 8.26 | 7.51 | 7.39 | 7.58
| | 短期借款占營運資金的比例 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 每股資本性支出(元) | 0.62 | 0.26 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 0.73 | 0.39
| | 每股投入資本凈額(元) | 11.93 | 11.70 | 10.72 | 9.92 | 13.88 | 13.56 | 12.62 | 11.75 | 11.36 | 11.26
| | 每股自由現(xiàn)金流(元) | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1.58 | 0.37 | (0.64) | (0.93) | 2.21 | 0.51 | (0.85) | (0.36)
| | 每股經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流（元） | 1.11 | 0.62 | 2.48 | 0.95 | (0.14) | (0.66) | 3.43 | 1.60 | (0.12) | 0.03
| | 營業(yè)費用與收入之比 | 14.03% | 13.43% | 12.55% | 16.33% | 15.21% | 16.38% | 15.21% | 15.96% | 14.85% | 13.64%
| | 管理費用與收入之比 | 8.45% | 6.45% | 10.39% | 9.18% | 9.59% | 5.63% | 12.17% | 9.86% | 9.70% | 5.31%
| | 財務費用與收入之比 | -0.48% | -0.33% | -0.87% | -1.06% | -0.75% | -0.79% | -0.67% | -0.79% | -0.44% | -0.30%
| | 投資支出占收入之比 | 14.39% | 8.92% | 11.84% | 11.01% | 10.50% | 8.62% | 13.95% | 19.32% | 20.10% | 14.55%
| | 存貨周轉率 - 單期值 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.33
| | 總資產(chǎn)周轉率-單期值 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.48
| | 凈資產(chǎn)周轉率-單期值 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.61
| | 應收帳款周轉率--單期值 | 100.08 | 163.62 | 112.22 | 87.30 | 127.23 | 142.69 | 102.16 | 81.38 | 68.46 | 36.69
| | 流動資產(chǎn)周轉率--單期值 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.64
| | 固定資產(chǎn)周轉率--單期值 | 5.44 | 5.59 | 4.18 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 4.32 | 5.42 | 4.76 | 4.29 | 4.10
| | 存貨儲存期(天) | 894.59 | 853.43 | 1139.59 | 959.30 | 859.94 | 929.80 | 916.98 | 1085.16 | 1146.10 | 1083.85
| | 應付帳款付款期(天) | 0.89 | 19.25 | 24.08 | 18.70 | 16.77 | 13.09 | 30.19 | 40.16 | 28.58 | 96.37
| | 應收帳款回收期(天) | 3.60 | 2.20 | 3.21 | 4.12 | 2.83 | 2.52 | 3.52 | 4.42 | 5.26 | 9.81
| | 預付帳款占用期(天) | 5.36 | 4.05 | 3.19 | 4.43 | 5.87 | 8.29 | 4.66 | 4.82 | 2.86 | 32.54
| | 預收帳款信用期（天） | 91.33 | 74.61 | 106.35 | 90.36 | 67.22 | 61.58 | 95.51 | 109.11 | 64.93 | 26.85
| | 現(xiàn)金占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 45.55% | 45.65% | 45.47% | 42.98% | 43.11% | 43.05% | 47.22% | 41.83% | 38.98% | 43.20%
| | 存貨占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 24.79% | 24.95% | 26.57% | 26.93% | 26.15% | 26.34% | 24.52% | 27.23% | 30.53% | 26.82%
| | 總資產(chǎn)環(huán)比增加比例 | 2.39% | 3.11% | 13.24% | 11.68% | 3.81% | -2.04% | 10.97% | 13.35% | 1.03% | -0.76%
| | 應付款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.02% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.52% | 0.51% | 0.37% | 0.81% | 1.01% | 0.76% | 2.38%
| | 應收款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.67% | 0.44% | 0.49% | 0.76% | 0.58% | 0.47% | 0.55% | 0.67% | 0.83% | 1.53%
| | 預收款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 16.98% | 14.85% | 16.27% | 16.70% | 13.67% | 11.51% | 15.03% | 16.57% | 10.28% | 4.19%
| | 預付款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.81%
| | 固定資產(chǎn)占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 10.47% | 10.93% | 11.23% | 11.55% | 12.90% | 13.28% | 8.90% | 9.77% | 11.29% | 11.64%
| | 無形資產(chǎn)占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.59% | 0.57% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01%
| | 現(xiàn)金與全年預計收入之比 | 79.62% | 74.56% | 96.60% | 75.57% | 68.90% | 74.83% | 97.50% | 89.52% | 80.04% | 89.99%
| | 流動比例 | 2.47 | 2.48 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 2.97 | 3.13 | 2.53 | 2.67 | 3.49 | 3.60
| | 速動比率 | 1.64 | 1.65 | 1.43 | 1.53 | 1.90 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 1.69 | 2.02 | 2.30
| | 成本與收入之比 | 17.44% | 17.19% | 17.84% | 17.77% | 17.50% | 17.73% | 19.88% | 19.33% | 19.69% | 18.55%
| | 其他稅費(億) | 6.33 | 3.59 | 6.62 | 7.50 | 5.94 | 4.44 | 6.17 | 6.52 | 5.04 | 2.80
| | 資本性支出(億) | 2.43 | 1.02 | 3.55 | 2.28 | 1.38 | 0.74 | 3.35 | 3.00 | 2.01 | 1.07
| | 單位收入需投入現(xiàn)金 | 0.40 | 0.49 | (0.07) | 0.28 | 0.51 | 0.69 | (0.02) | 0.32 | 0.62 | 0.61
| | 單位收入產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.44
| | 單位收入可用于增長的現(xiàn)金 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.29
| | 投資評級及建議-電腦得出僅供參考 | 優(yōu)-買入 | 優(yōu)-買入 | 優(yōu)-買入 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 良-可關注 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 良-可關注 | 中性 | 中性
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【 · 原創(chuàng):似是而非 2005-08-24 20:33 】
好強的表哈：）
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):carman 2005-08-25 21:37 】
茅臺兄處理的數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)很全了，不需要補充，大家只需要提煉出數(shù)字后的內容。
對茅臺兄來說： 天道酬勤，非虛言也。
我不太懂財務，有些看不懂，我看其中比較重要的指標有：
1 總收入同比增長率
2 凈利潤同比增長率
3 主營業(yè)務利潤率
4 股東權益報酬率
對于茅臺來說有幾點確實與很多公司不同：
存貨占總資產(chǎn)比例24.8%
固定資產(chǎn)占總資產(chǎn)比例10.5%
無形資產(chǎn)占總資產(chǎn)比例0.6%
現(xiàn)金占總資產(chǎn)比例45.5%
說明茅臺的巨大品牌價值記帳幾乎為零，最低回報的現(xiàn)金占45.5%，是挺有意思。
存貨的價值記帳和評估市場價值也有很大差距。
單位收入可用于增長的現(xiàn)金 0.3
生息債務占負債比率為0
凈利潤現(xiàn)金含量91% 也很能說明問題。
其實強勁的不可思議的財務報表的背后，都是巨大的無形資產(chǎn)品牌形象的作用，所以指標不可說不多，說明的東西只能是一點。那就是是什么造就了這家卓越的公司。太多的指標只是錦上添花而已了。
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):孫大炮 2005-08-25 22:04 】
茅臺的巨大品牌價值記帳當然為零，因為茅臺的商標屬于控股母公司，上市公司只是獲得了使用許可
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):shiruogui 2005-08-25 23:35 】
孫大炮兄
怎么不發(fā)表你的觀點啊。
我就是看了你的貼后介入的，賺了一倍。
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):wjlll... 2005-08-26 07:06 】
孫先生你好 你的認識與事實相反或者說有很大的出入,請參閱600519的招股說明書第23頁.
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):茅臺03 2005-08-26 11:40 】
感謝carman兄非常到位的點評，您說的不錯，關鍵是思考企業(yè)什么方面的因素造就了它的卓越，任何數(shù)據(jù)指標的運用都不能脫離定性思考而單獨進行。當然定性思考也不能脫離完善的數(shù)據(jù)分析，否則會比單純的定量分析更容易令人誤入歧途，而任何投資思考的最終還都是要在數(shù)字上體現(xiàn)出來的。上面的表是我為處理各種企業(yè)的報告數(shù)據(jù)而設計的模型，茅臺的數(shù)據(jù)僅是為了舉例，對它來講可能有很多指標會顯得多余和重復，但對于那些產(chǎn)業(yè)及經(jīng)營環(huán)境復雜，行業(yè)特性所導致的對各指標敏感度不同的企業(yè)來說，有些指標的存在是有其意義的，甚至由于行業(yè)的不同，上面還會有很多疏漏的地方，這也是我想讓大家補充的。我希望通過大家的交流開發(fā)出一種適用于各種類型企業(yè)的傻瓜模型，讓那些對財務公式不熟悉的人也能夠進行數(shù)據(jù)分析和估值處理，這樣才能夠真正將基本面分析的風氣貫徹下去。
另外，上面兩位對茅臺品牌的爭論，我覺得都沒錯，孫大炮陳述的是會計記帳的事實，wjlll...所想表達的意思也正確，除飛天商標原屬于糧油公司但今年以300萬年使用費有償歸屬有限公司外，其他商標都是以非常公允甚至偏低的價格由上市公司使用且50年后無償轉讓的，而且相關協(xié)議很清楚，具體細則上看上市公司實際上是占了很大便宜的。所以孫大炮說的記帳價值為零并不意味著他在估值上也進行了為零處理，你們說是嗎？：）
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):茅臺03 2005-10-24 23:27 】
這里把茅臺新出的3季度數(shù)據(jù)計算也貼出來吧，大家可以多看看。。（注：電腦評級共分6類，分別是完美、優(yōu)異-強買、優(yōu)-買入、良-可關注、中性和回避）
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| | 貴州茅臺 | 05年3季報 | 05年中報 | 05年1季報 | 04年年報 | 04年3季報 | 04年中報 | 04年1季報 | 03年年報 | 03年3季報 | 03年中報 | 03年1季報 | 02年年報
| | 當季收盤價 | 49.46 | 53.65 | 48.11 | 36.64 | 35.97 | 33.85 | 35.04 | 25.40 | 21.24 | 24.96 | 26.05 | 25.46
| | 贏利能力評分-注1 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 94.16 | 100.00 | 99.06 | 94.84 | 88.98 | 81.17 | 80.66 | 80.83 | 80.61
| | 成長能力評分-注2 | 82.97 | 87.92 | 86.91 | 83.93 | 91.06 | 88.10 | 49.03 | 94.27 | 53.10 | 32.18 | 20.67 | 52.58
| | 估值情況評分-注3 | 49.63 | 55.14 | 62.41 | 62.13 | 63.89 | 77.80 | 75.94 | 82.98 | 86.44 | 73.57 | 70.00 | 67.42
| | 信用情況評分-注4 | 88.70 | 91.12 | 91.28 | 86.76 | 90.49 | 91.40 | 90.86 | 91.19 | 91.10 | 90.57 | 90.16 | 89.70
| | 綜合情況評價-注5 | 81.17 | 84.27 | 85.80 | 82.34 | 87.34 | 89.69 | 75.97 | 89.29 | 75.06 | 65.34 | 61.01 | 69.81
| | 每股收益（元） | 1.49 | 1.22 | 0.94 | 2.09 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 0.95 | 2.13 | 1.29 | 0.92 | 0.79 | 1.37
| | 每股凈資產(chǎn)（元） | 9.99 | 11.82 | 11.54 | 10.60 | 9.83 | 13.77 | 13.45 | 12.51 | 11.64 | 11.27 | 11.16 | 10.37
| | 當季收入占比 | 34.66% | 32.15% | 100.00% | 31.00% | 36.52% | 35.08% | 100.00% | 35.33% | 35.57% | 26.70% | 100.00% | 25.63%
| | 當季利潤占比 | 31.67% | 23.10% | 100.00% | 37.13% | 32.30% | 25.07% | 100.00% | 39.58% | 28.77% | 13.82% | 100.00% | 17.99%
| | 預估全年凈利潤(億) | 11.17 | 11.28 | 11.58 | 8.20 | 8.53 | 8.11 | 7.05 | 5.87 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.98 | 3.77
| | 預估全年每股收益（元） | 2.37 | 2.87 | 2.94 | 2.09 | 2.17 | 2.95 | 2.56 | 2.13 | 1.57 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.37
| | 預估全年主營業(yè)務收入(億) | 37.40 | 38.49 | 40.23 | 30.00 | 32.01 | 31.54 | 27.93 | 24.00 | 20.87 | 19.19 | 18.72 | 18.34
| | 市凈率(倍) | 4.95 | 4.54 | 4.17 | 3.46 | 3.66 | 2.46 | 2.60 | 2.03 | 1.83 | 2.21 | 2.33 | 2.45
| | 市銷率(折算為全年數(shù)據(jù)) | 6.24 | 5.48 | 4.70 | 4.80 | 4.42 | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 3.58 | 3.83 | 3.82
| | 市盈率(折算為全年數(shù)據(jù)) | 20.89 | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00 | 18.58
| | 市盈率(倍)(含債調整去息稅)折為全年 | 20.89 | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00 | 18.58
| | ＰＥＧ（以當期ＲＯＥ為增長標準） | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.41
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均凈利增長為標準） | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.48 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | 0.35 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0!
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均收入增長為標準） | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.76 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | 0.40 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0!
| | 本期主營業(yè)務利潤率 | 66.77% | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.29% | 63.26% | 65.00% | 65.03% | 64.01%
| | 本期綜合業(yè)務利潤率 | 66.77% | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.33% | 63.38% | 65.17% | 65.22% | 64.18%
| | 本期凈利潤率 | 27.22% | 28.47% | 32.27% | 27.33% | 24.90% | 26.56% | 30.66% | 24.45% | 22.84% | 25.25% | 29.69% | 20.55%
| | 本期凈利潤率同比提高率 | 9.32% | 7.19% | 5.25% | 11.81% | 9.03% | 5.19% | 3.27% | 18.99% | 0.83% | 1.39% | 3.47% | 1.26%
| | 預估全年投入資本報酬率 | 23.45% | 24.03% | 25.16% | 19.44% | 21.86% | 21.24% | 18.91% | 16.90% | 13.38% | 12.79% | 12.85% | 12.88%
| | 預估全年股東權益報酬率 | 23.71% | 24.25% | 25.51% | 19.67% | 22.08% | 21.41% | 19.06% | 17.06% | 13.51% | 12.90% | 12.96% | 13.21%
| | 當季權益報酬率 | 4.78% | 2.44% | 8.85% | 7.88% | 4.40% | 2.36% | 7.60% | 7.26% | 3.29% | 1.14% | 7.63% | 2.39%
| | 當季權益報酬率同比變化率 | 8.85% | 3.30% | 16.44% | 8.60% | 33.59% | 108.03% | -0.34% | 203.95% | 28.32% | -2.77% | -6.30% | #DIV/0!
| | 股本同比變動率 | 20.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00%
| | 可持續(xù)增長率 | 21.60% | 23.57% | 28.61% | 14.95% | 20.63% | 22.11% | 23.14% | 14.66% | 14.90% | 15.63% | 18.10% | 11.28%
| | 最大內部融資增長率 | 121.11% | 130.31% | 225.25% | 83.59% | 101.12% | 122.92% | 116.25% | 75.03% | 41.59% | 34.07% | 74.97% | 28.16%
| | 總收入同比增長率 | 24.65% | 28.31% | 34.11% | 25.00% | 33.38% | 31.40% | 16.37% | 30.86% | 13.78% | 4.64% | 2.09% | 13.35%
| | 凈利潤同比增長率 | 36.27% | 37.54% | 41.16% | 39.76% | 45.42% | 38.22% | 20.17% | 55.71% | 14.72% | 6.09% | 5.63% | 14.78%
| | 稅前利潤同比增長率 | 31.39% | 32.84% | 39.38% | 52.51% | 46.88% | 38.61% | 17.15% | 50.54% | 12.93% | 2.75% | 1.02% | 6.92%
| | 總市值環(huán)比增長率 | 10.63% | 11.52% | 31.30% | 1.86% | 51.96% | -3.40% | 37.95% | 19.59% | -14.90% | -4.18% | 2.32% | -0.62%
| | 債務杠桿 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.53 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.38
| | 生息負債率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 資產(chǎn)負債率 | 33.40% | 30.90% | 30.94% | 34.59% | 31.35% | 24.84% | 23.79% | 30.61% | 28.35% | 21.32% | 21.28% | 27.43%
| | 每股生息負債(元) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00
| | 生息債務占負債比率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 實際所得稅率 | 36.16% | 33.56% | 31.13% | 42.72% | 38.57% | 36.10% | 32.45% | 37.72% | 37.98% | 36.19% | 33.97% | 39.52%
| | 凈利潤現(xiàn)金含量 | 125.80% | 90.96% | 65.63% | 119.00% | 72.49% | -10.88% | -69.36% | 160.56% | 123.84% | -13.45% | 4.14% | 115.18%
| | 主營業(yè)務收入現(xiàn)金含量 | 109.93% | 105.24% | 94.14% | 103.89% | 101.99% | 94.96% | 82.70% | 108.90% | 114.55% | 98.55% | 73.16% | 106.63%
| | 每股營運資金(元) | 6.06 | 7.50 | 7.42 | 6.65 | 6.20 | 8.79 | 8.71 | 8.26 | 7.51 | 7.39 | 7.58 | 7.04
| | 短期借款占營運資金的比例 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 每股資本性支出(元) | 0.82 | 0.62 | 0.26 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 0.73 | 0.39 | 1.70
| | 每股投入資本凈額(元) | 10.10 | 11.93 | 11.70 | 10.72 | 9.92 | 13.88 | 13.56 | 12.62 | 11.75 | 11.36 | 11.26 | 10.64
| | 每股自由現(xiàn)金流(元) | 1.05 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1.58 | 0.37 | (0.64) | (0.93) | 2.21 | 0.51 | (0.85) | (0.36) | (0.12)
| | 每股經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流（元） | 1.87 | 1.11 | 0.62 | 2.48 | 0.95 | (0.14) | (0.66) | 3.43 | 1.60 | (0.12) | 0.03 | 1.58
| | 營業(yè)費用與收入之比 | 14.39% | 14.03% | 13.43% | 12.55% | 16.33% | 15.21% | 16.38% | 15.21% | 15.96% | 14.85% | 13.64% | 16.79%
| | 管理費用與收入之比 | 8.39% | 8.45% | 6.45% | 10.39% | 9.18% | 9.59% | 5.63% | 12.17% | 9.86% | 9.70% | 5.31% | 12.98%
| | 財務費用與收入之比 | -0.55% | -0.48% | -0.33% | -0.87% | -1.06% | -0.75% | -0.79% | -0.67% | -0.79% | -0.44% | -0.30% | -0.95%
| | 投資支出占收入之比 | 15.06% | 14.39% | 8.92% | 11.84% | 11.01% | 10.50% | 8.62% | 13.95% | 19.32% | 20.10% | 14.55% | 25.71%
| | 存貨周轉率 - 單期值 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.32
| | 總資產(chǎn)周轉率-單期值 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.47
| | 凈資產(chǎn)周轉率-單期值 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.64
| | 應收帳款周轉率--單期值 | 107.57 | 100.08 | 163.62 | 112.22 | 87.30 | 127.23 | 142.69 | 102.16 | 81.38 | 68.46 | 36.69 | 50.21
| | 流動資產(chǎn)周轉率--單期值 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.63
| | 固定資產(chǎn)周轉率--單期值 | 5.01 | 5.44 | 5.59 | 4.18 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 4.32 | 5.42 | 4.76 | 4.29 | 4.10 | 3.88
| | 存貨儲存期(天) | 928.70 | 894.59 | 853.43 | 1139.59 | 959.30 | 859.94 | 929.80 | 916.98 | 1085.16 | 1146.10 | 1083.85 | 1139.93
| | 應付帳款付款期(天) | 11.79 | 0.89 | 19.25 | 24.08 | 18.70 | 16.77 | 13.09 | 30.19 | 40.16 | 28.58 | 96.37 | 25.41
| | 應收帳款回收期(天) | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 3.21 | 4.12 | 2.83 | 2.52 | 3.52 | 4.42 | 5.26 | 9.81 | 7.17
| | 預付帳款占用期(天) | 4.90 | 5.36 | 4.05 | 3.19 | 4.43 | 5.87 | 8.29 | 4.66 | 4.82 | 2.86 | 32.54 | 6.48
| | 預收帳款信用期（天） | 117.87 | 91.33 | 74.61 | 106.35 | 90.36 | 67.22 | 61.58 | 95.51 | 109.11 | 64.93 | 26.85 | 75.92
| | 現(xiàn)金占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 45.45% | 45.55% | 45.65% | 45.47% | 42.98% | 43.11% | 43.05% | 47.22% | 41.83% | 38.98% | 43.20% | 45.29%
| | 存貨占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 23.80% | 24.79% | 24.95% | 26.57% | 26.93% | 26.15% | 26.34% | 24.52% | 27.23% | 30.53% | 26.82% | 27.39%
| | 總資產(chǎn)環(huán)比增加比例 | 5.18% | 2.39% | 3.11% | 13.24% | 11.68% | 3.81% | -2.04% | 10.97% | 13.35% | 1.03% | -0.76% | 6.33%
| | 應付款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.52% | 0.51% | 0.37% | 0.81% | 1.01% | 0.76% | 2.38% | 0.61%
| | 應收款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.57% | 0.67% | 0.44% | 0.49% | 0.76% | 0.58% | 0.47% | 0.55% | 0.67% | 0.83% | 1.53% | 1.09%
| | 預收款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 20.24% | 16.98% | 14.85% | 16.27% | 16.70% | 13.67% | 11.51% | 15.03% | 16.57% | 10.28% | 4.19% | 11.51%
| | 預付款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.81% | 0.16%
| | 固定資產(chǎn)占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 10.52% | 10.47% | 10.93% | 11.23% | 11.55% | 12.90% | 13.28% | 8.90% | 9.77% | 11.29% | 11.64% | 11.96%
| | 無形資產(chǎn)占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.81% | 0.59% | 0.57% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01%
| | 現(xiàn)金與全年預計收入之比 | 86.03% | 79.62% | 74.56% | 96.60% | 75.57% | 68.90% | 74.83% | 97.50% | 89.52% | 80.04% | 89.99% | 97.06%
| | 流動比例 | 2.24 | 2.47 | 2.48 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 2.97 | 3.13 | 2.53 | 2.67 | 3.49 | 3.60 | 2.83
| | 速動比率 | 1.51 | 1.64 | 1.65 | 1.43 | 1.53 | 1.90 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 1.69 | 2.02 | 2.30 | 1.81
| | 成本與收入之比 | 17.46% | 17.44% | 17.19% | 17.84% | 17.77% | 17.50% | 17.73% | 19.88% | 19.33% | 19.69% | 18.55% | 18.54%
| | 其他稅費(億) | 8.29 | 6.33 | 3.59 | 6.62 | 7.50 | 5.94 | 4.44 | 6.17 | 6.52 | 5.04 | 2.80 | 4.97
| | 資本性支出(億) | 3.89 | 2.43 | 1.02 | 3.55 | 2.28 | 1.38 | 0.74 | 3.35 | 3.00 | 2.01 | 1.07 | 4.67
| | 經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金周期（天） | 190.10 | 178.16 | 168.52 | 228.04 | 198.70 | 169.65 | 186.51 | 215.25 | 249.48 | 247.55 | 231.16 | 240.99
| | 單位收入需投入現(xiàn)金 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.55 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.60
| | 單位收入產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.36
| | 單位收入可用于增長的現(xiàn)金 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.11
| | 投資評級及建議-電腦得出僅供參考 | 優(yōu)-買入 | 優(yōu)-買入 | 優(yōu)-買入 | 優(yōu)-買入 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 良-可關注 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 良-可關注 | 中性 | 中性 | 中性
| |
【 · 原創(chuàng):shiruogui 2005-11-09 17:14 】
茅臺是肯定會漲假的
五糧液已經(jīng)300多了。茅臺還是200多，相差100元人民幣啊
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):職業(yè)投資者 2005-12-04 23:12 】
茅臺需要的把多余的現(xiàn)金分給股東或者回購股票。
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):wlone 2006-02-13 12:32 】
哇,茅臺的填權的價格已經(jīng)快到120元了,好牛啊.
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):茅臺03 2006-04-05 17:33 】
今天是茅臺年報公布的日子，應朋友要求把數(shù)據(jù)貼在下面，有興趣的可以看看。另外，個別基準值有所改動，與之前沖突之處以最新的數(shù)據(jù)為準。|
| | 貴州茅臺 | 05年年報 | 05年3季報 | 05年中報 | 05年1季報 | 04年年報 | 04年3季報 | 04年中報 | 04年1季報 | 03年年報 | 03年3季報 | 03年中報 | 03年1季報 | 02年年報
| | 當季收盤價 | 45.62 | 49.46 | 53.65 | 48.11 | 36.64 | 35.97 | 33.85 | 35.04 | 25.40 | 21.24 | 24.96 | 26.05 | 25.46
| | 贏利能力評分-注1 | 99.94 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 95.76 | 100.00 | 98.92 | 94.65 | 90.22 | 81.18 | 80.62 | 80.82 | 80.53
| | 成長能力評分-注2 | 92.09 | 86.70 | 90.39 | 86.91 | 84.16 | 91.06 | 89.89 | 51.91 | 94.27 | 55.21 | 33.05 | 21.47 | 54.69
| | 估值情況評分-注3 | 50.45 | 45.81 | 51.08 | 58.19 | 56.36 | 58.86 | 70.34 | 68.48 | 73.02 | 75.01 | 63.94 | 60.80 | 58.87
| | 信用情況評分-注4 | 81.89 | 88.53 | 90.94 | 91.09 | 85.68 | 90.12 | 90.86 | 89.74 | 91.04 | 90.47 | 89.48 | 89.11 | 88.70
| | 綜合情況評價-注5 | 85.49 | 83.36 | 85.95 | 86.16 | 82.81 | 87.65 | 89.24 | 73.96 | 88.28 | 71.78 | 61.52 | 56.87 | 67.97
| | 每股收益（元） | 2.37 | 1.49 | 1.22 | 0.94 | 2.09 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 0.95 | 2.13 | 1.29 | 0.92 | 0.79 | 1.37
| | 每股凈資產(chǎn)（元） | 10.79 | 9.99 | 11.82 | 11.54 | 10.60 | 9.83 | 13.77 | 13.45 | 12.51 | 11.64 | 11.27 | 11.16 | 10.37
| | 每股自由現(xiàn)金流(元) | 2.44 | 1.05 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1.58 | 0.37 | (0.64) | (0.93) | 2.21 | 0.51 | (0.85) | (0.36) | (0.12)
| | 預估全年凈利潤(億) | 11.19 | 11.17 | 11.28 | 11.58 | 8.20 | 8.53 | 8.11 | 7.05 | 5.87 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.98 | 3.77
| | 預估全年每股收益（元） | 2.37 | 2.37 | 2.87 | 2.94 | 2.09 | 2.17 | 2.95 | 2.56 | 2.13 | 1.57 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.37
| | 當季主營業(yè)務收入(億) | 13.50 | 8.94 | 5.42 | 11.44 | 9.30 | 7.56 | 4.61 | 8.53 | 8.48 | 5.52 | 2.67 | 7.33 | 4.70
| | 預估全年主營業(yè)務收入(億) | 39.31 | 37.40 | 38.49 | 40.23 | 30.00 | 32.01 | 31.54 | 27.93 | 24.00 | 20.87 | 19.19 | 18.72 | 18.34
| | 市凈率(倍) | 4.23 | 4.95 | 4.54 | 4.17 | 3.46 | 3.66 | 2.46 | 2.60 | 2.03 | 1.83 | 2.21 | 2.33 | 2.45
| | 市銷率(折算為全年數(shù)據(jù)) | 5.48 | 6.24 | 5.48 | 4.70 | 4.80 | 4.42 | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 3.58 | 3.83 | 3.82
| | 市盈率(折算為全年數(shù)據(jù)) | 19.25 | 20.89 | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00 | 18.58
| | 市盈率(倍)(含債調整去息稅)折為全年 | 19.25 | 20.89 | 18.71 | 16.34 | 17.57 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 13.67 | 11.91 | 13.51 | 17.17 | 18.00 | 18.58
| | ＰＥＧ（以當期ＲＯＥ為增長標準） | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.41
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均凈利增長為標準） | 0.44 | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.48 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 0.68 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 0.35 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 0.90
| | ＰＥＧ（以３年均收入增長為標準） | 0.66 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 0.76 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 0.40 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 0.67
| | 預估全年總資產(chǎn)報酬率 | 13.88% | 15.79% | 16.76% | 17.61% | 12.87% | 15.16% | 16.09% | 14.52% | 11.84% | 9.68% | 10.15% | 10.21% | 9.59%
| | 預估全年投入資本報酬率 | 21.67% | 23.45% | 24.03% | 25.16% | 19.44% | 21.86% | 21.24% | 18.91% | 16.90% | 13.38% | 12.79% | 12.85% | 12.88%
| | 預估全年股東權益報酬率 | 21.97% | 23.71% | 24.25% | 25.51% | 19.67% | 22.08% | 21.41% | 19.06% | 17.06% | 13.51% | 12.90% | 12.96% | 13.21%
| | 二級市場現(xiàn)金收益率-本期 | 5.62% | 2.46% | 1.08% | 0.88% | 5.39% | 1.24% | -2.47% | -3.38% | 13.07% | 3.50% | -4.41% | -1.78% | -0.64%
| | 總收入同比增長率 | 31.02% | 24.65% | 28.31% | 34.11% | 25.00% | 33.38% | 31.40% | 16.37% | 30.86% | 13.78% | 4.64% | 2.09% | 13.35%
| | 凈利潤同比增長率 | 36.41% | 36.27% | 37.54% | 41.16% | 39.76% | 45.42% | 38.22% | 20.17% | 55.71% | 14.72% | 6.09% | 5.63% | 14.78%
| | 當季收入同比增長率 | 45.18% | 18.30% | 17.57% | 34.11% | 9.67% | 36.96% | 72.66% | 16.37% | 80.43% | 35.18% | 12.35% | 2.09% | -70.95%
| | 當季凈利潤同比增長率 | 36.64% | 33.63% | 26.70% | 41.16% | 31.14% | 63.24% | 150.72% | 20.17% | 242.48% | 43.66% | 9.06% | 5.63% | -79.35%
| | 凈利潤率 | 28.46% | 27.22% | 28.47% | 32.27% | 27.33% | 24.90% | 26.56% | 30.66% | 24.45% | 22.84% | 25.25% | 29.69% | 20.55%
| | 主營業(yè)務利潤率 | 69.03% | 66.77% | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.29% | 63.26% | 65.00% | 65.03% | 64.01%
| | 當季凈利潤率 | 30.81% | 24.88% | 20.45% | 32.27% | 32.74% | 22.02% | 18.98% | 30.66% | 27.38% | 18.48% | 13.07% | 29.69% | 14.43%
| | 當季主營業(yè)務利潤率 | 73.34% | 66.74% | 63.58% | 68.30% | 82.78% | 65.34% | 65.94% | 68.23% | 74.67% | 60.11% | 64.91% | 65.03% | 57.45%
| | 當季權益報酬率 | 8.17% | 4.72% | 2.38% | 8.13% | 7.30% | 4.31% | 2.31% | 7.07% | 6.75% | 3.19% | 1.13% | 7.09% | 2.38%
| | 當季權益報酬率同比變化率 | 11.87% | 9.54% | 3.21% | 15.09% | 8.17% | 35.18% | 105.18% | -0.29% | 184.02% | 27.50% | -2.58% | -5.83% | -81.68%
| | 經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流同比增長率 | 73.57% | 136.49% | 1249.55% | 233.57% | 3.59% | -14.88% | -11.82% | -2115.37% | 117.05% | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 81.13% | 無數(shù)據(jù)輸入 | 918.78%
| | 綜合業(yè)務利潤率 | 69.03% | 66.77% | 66.79% | 68.30% | 71.66% | 66.67% | 67.43% | 68.23% | 67.33% | 63.38% | 65.17% | 65.22% | 64.18%
| | 當季綜合業(yè)務利潤率 | 73.34% | 66.74% | 63.58% | 68.30% | 82.78% | 65.34% | 65.94% | 68.23% | 74.67% | 60.11% | 64.91% | 65.22% | 57.45%
| | 當季毛利率同比提高率 | -11.40% | 2.14% | -3.58% | 0.11% | 10.87% | 8.71% | 1.60% | 4.91% | 29.98% | -8.41% | -2.62% | -2.23% | -8.21%
| | 存貨同比增長率 | 9.85% | 11.10% | 26.56% | 28.23% | 39.40% | 24.68% | 9.56% | 22.29% | 12.86% | 21.59% | 20.30% | 27.58% | 36.97%
| | 應收帳款同比增長率 | 39.67% | -5.19% | 55.17% | 25.63% | 13.79% | 43.00% | -11.59% | -61.64% | -35.68% | -56.52% | -21.72% | -12.08% | -8.49%
| | 預收帳款同比增長率 | 48.83% | 52.40% | 65.83% | 74.54% | 39.18% | 27.03% | 70.12% | 242.15% | 64.64% | 131.97% | 76.09% | -2.17% | 47.88%
| | 營業(yè)費用與收入之比 | 12.11% | 14.39% | 14.03% | 13.43% | 12.55% | 16.33% | 15.21% | 16.38% | 15.21% | 15.96% | 14.85% | 13.64% | 16.79%
| | 管理費用與收入之比 | 8.92% | 8.39% | 8.45% | 6.45% | 10.39% | 9.18% | 9.59% | 5.63% | 12.17% | 9.86% | 9.70% | 5.31% | 12.98%
| | 財務費用與收入之比 | -0.82% | -0.55% | -0.48% | -0.33% | -0.87% | -1.06% | -0.75% | -0.79% | -0.67% | -0.79% | -0.44% | -0.30% | -0.95%
| | 當季期間費用占收入比 | 16.36% | 22.66% | 27.15% | 19.55% | 16.78% | 25.13% | 29.27% | 21.23% | 29.77% | 26.71% | 39.12% | 18.64% | 31.81%
| | 期間費用占收入比同比增長率 | -8.43% | -9.08% | -8.53% | -7.88% | -17.37% | -2.35% | -0.25% | 13.85% | -7.32% | -9.91% | -1.58% | -4.55% | 15.61%
| | 當季期間費用占收入比同比增長率 | -2.54% | -9.85% | -7.23% | -7.88% | -43.63% | -5.89% | -25.17% | 13.85% | -6.39% | -24.74% | -0.96% | -4.55% | 27.61%
| | 存貨環(huán)比增長率 | 10.47% | 0.98% | 1.71% | -3.17% | 11.72% | 15.02% | 3.05% | 5.27% | -0.07% | 1.07% | 15.02% | -2.85% | 7.66%
| | 應收帳款環(huán)比增長率 | 7.41% | -9.62% | 56.41% | -8.02% | -27.09% | 47.93% | 26.64% | -16.68% | -8.38% | -8.54% | -45.06% | 39.69% | -38.07%
| | 存貨周轉率 - 單期值 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.32
| | 總資產(chǎn)周轉率-單期值 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.47
| | 凈資產(chǎn)周轉率-單期值 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.64
| | 應收帳款周轉率--單期值 | 105.27 | 107.57 | 100.08 | 163.62 | 112.22 | 87.30 | 127.23 | 142.69 | 102.16 | 81.38 | 68.46 | 36.69 | 50.21
| | 流動資產(chǎn)周轉率--單期值 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.63
| | 固定資產(chǎn)周轉率--單期值 | 4.00 | 5.01 | 5.44 | 5.59 | 4.18 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 4.32 | 5.42 | 4.76 | 4.29 | 4.10 | 3.88
| | 股本同比變動率 | 20.00% | 20.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 43.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00%
| | 稅前利潤同比增長率 | 28.88% | 31.39% | 32.84% | 39.38% | 52.51% | 46.88% | 38.61% | 17.15% | 50.54% | 12.93% | 2.75% | 1.02% | 6.92%
| | 總市值環(huán)比增長率 | -7.76% | 10.63% | 11.52% | 31.30% | 1.86% | 51.96% | -3.40% | 37.95% | 19.59% | -14.90% | -4.18% | 2.32% | -0.62%
| | 債務杠桿 | 1.58 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.53 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.38
| | 生息負債率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 資產(chǎn)負債率 | 36.81% | 33.40% | 30.90% | 30.94% | 34.59% | 31.35% | 24.84% | 23.79% | 30.61% | 28.35% | 21.32% | 21.28% | 27.43%
| | 每股生息負債(元) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00
| | 生息債務占負債比率 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 其他稅費(億) | (7.51) | 8.29 | 6.33 | 3.59 | 6.62 | 7.50 | 5.94 | 4.44 | 6.17 | 6.52 | 5.04 | 2.80 | 4.97
| | 每股營運資金(元) | 6.62 | 6.06 | 7.50 | 7.42 | 6.65 | 6.20 | 8.79 | 8.71 | 8.26 | 7.51 | 7.39 | 7.58 | 7.04
| | 短期借款占營運資金的比例 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00%
| | 每股資本性支出(元) | 1.15 | 0.82 | 0.62 | 0.26 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 0.73 | 0.39 | 1.70
| | 每股投入資本凈額(元) | 10.94 | 10.10 | 11.93 | 11.70 | 10.72 | 9.92 | 13.88 | 13.56 | 12.62 | 11.75 | 11.36 | 11.26 | 10.64
| | 每股經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流（元） | 3.59 | 1.87 | 1.11 | 0.62 | 2.48 | 0.95 | (0.14) | (0.66) | 3.43 | 1.60 | (0.12) | 0.03 | 1.58
| | 投資支出占收入之比 | 13.76% | 15.06% | 14.39% | 8.92% | 11.84% | 11.01% | 10.50% | 8.62% | 13.95% | 19.32% | 20.10% | 14.55% | 25.71%
| | 存貨儲存期(天) | 974.81 | 928.70 | 894.59 | 853.43 | 1139.59 | 959.30 | 859.94 | 929.80 | 916.98 | 1085.16 | 1146.10 | 1083.85 | 1139.93
| | 應付帳款付款期(天) | 15.89 | 11.79 | 0.89 | 19.25 | 24.08 | 18.70 | 16.77 | 13.09 | 30.19 | 40.16 | 28.58 | 96.37 | 25.41
| | 應收帳款回收期(天) | 3.42 | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 3.21 | 4.12 | 2.83 | 2.52 | 3.52 | 4.42 | 5.26 | 9.81 | 7.17
| | 預付帳款占用期(天) | 6.49 | 4.90 | 5.36 | 4.05 | 3.19 | 4.43 | 5.87 | 8.29 | 4.66 | 4.82 | 2.86 | 32.54 | 6.48
| | 預收帳款信用期（天） | 120.81 | 117.87 | 91.33 | 74.61 | 106.35 | 90.36 | 67.22 | 61.58 | 95.51 | 109.11 | 64.93 | 26.85 | 75.92
| | 現(xiàn)金占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 48.30% | 45.45% | 45.55% | 45.65% | 45.47% | 42.98% | 43.11% | 43.05% | 47.22% | 41.83% | 38.98% | 43.20% | 45.29%
| | 存貨占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 23.09% | 23.80% | 24.79% | 24.95% | 26.57% | 26.93% | 26.15% | 26.34% | 24.52% | 27.23% | 30.53% | 26.82% | 27.39%
| | 總資產(chǎn)同比增加比例 | 26.42% | 25.74% | 33.51% | 35.36% | 28.60% | 26.03% | 27.92% | 24.49% | 26.11% | 20.83% | 15.20% | 13.08% | 13.49%
| | 應付款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.38% | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.52% | 0.51% | 0.37% | 0.81% | 1.01% | 0.76% | 2.38% | 0.61%
| | 應收款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.54% | 0.57% | 0.67% | 0.44% | 0.49% | 0.76% | 0.58% | 0.47% | 0.55% | 0.67% | 0.83% | 1.53% | 1.09%
| | 預收款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 19.15% | 20.24% | 16.98% | 14.85% | 16.27% | 16.70% | 13.67% | 11.51% | 15.03% | 16.57% | 10.28% | 4.19% | 11.51%
| | 預付款項占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.81% | 0.16%
| | 固定資產(chǎn)占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 23.71% | 10.52% | 10.47% | 10.93% | 11.23% | 11.55% | 12.90% | 13.28% | 8.90% | 9.77% | 11.29% | 11.64% | 11.96%
| | 無形資產(chǎn)占總資產(chǎn)比例 | 0.00% | 0.81% | 0.59% | 0.57% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01%
| | 現(xiàn)金與全年預計收入之比 | 99.02% | 86.03% | 79.62% | 74.56% | 96.60% | 75.57% | 68.90% | 74.83% | 97.50% | 89.52% | 80.04% | 89.99% | 97.06%
| | 流動比例 | 2.08 | 2.24 | 2.47 | 2.48 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 2.97 | 3.13 | 2.53 | 2.67 | 3.49 | 3.60 | 2.83
| | 速動比率 | 1.44 | 1.51 | 1.64 | 1.65 | 1.43 | 1.53 | 1.90 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 1.69 | 2.02 | 2.30 | 1.81
| | 綜合稅率 | 32.60% | 31.90% | 30.82% | 29.67% | 32.05% | 31.78% | 30.72% | 29.17% | 28.19% | 31.86% | 31.06% | 32.35% | 31.43%
| | 實際所得稅率 | 39.12% | 36.16% | 33.56% | 31.13% | 42.72% | 38.57% | 36.10% | 32.45% | 37.72% | 37.98% | 36.19% | 33.97% | 39.52%
| | 可持續(xù)增長率 | 19.19% | 21.60% | 23.57% | 28.61% | 14.95% | 20.63% | 22.11% | 23.14% | 14.66% | 14.90% | 15.63% | 18.10% | 11.28%
| | 最大內部融資增長率 | 252.91% | 121.11% | 130.31% | 225.25% | 83.59% | 101.12% | 122.92% | 116.25% | 75.03% | 41.59% | 34.07% | 74.97% | 28.16%
| | 凈利潤現(xiàn)金含量 | 151.42% | 125.80% | 90.96% | 65.63% | 119.00% | 72.49% | -10.88% | -69.36% | 160.56% | 123.84% | -13.45% | 4.14% | 115.18%
| | 主營業(yè)務收入現(xiàn)金含量 | 108.22% | 109.93% | 105.24% | 94.14% | 103.89% | 101.99% | 94.96% | 82.70% | 108.90% | 114.55% | 98.55% | 73.16% | 106.63%
| | 經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金周期（天） | 197.57 | 190.10 | 178.16 | 168.52 | 228.04 | 198.70 | 169.65 | 186.51 | 215.25 | 249.48 | 247.55 | 231.16 | 240.99
| | 單位收入需投入現(xiàn)金 | 0.11 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.55 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.60
| | 單位收入產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.36
| | 單位收入可用于增長的現(xiàn)金 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.11
| | 投資評級及建議-電腦得出僅供參考 | 優(yōu)-買入 | 優(yōu)-買入 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 優(yōu)-買入 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 良-可關注 | 優(yōu)異-強買 | 良-可關注 | 中性 | 回避 | 中性
| |
【 · 原創(chuàng):looklaw 2006-04-05 18:43 】
謝謝
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):rissun 2006-04-05 19:33 】
ddd
工具箱
【 · 原創(chuàng):w811880 2006-04-05 20:11 】
令人不解的是，2002年年報時，價格（除權）相當于14.25；2003年一季度報時，價格相當于13.81；2003年中報公布時，價格相當于14.36。以上這些時點，貼主給出的意見分別是中性、回避、中性；而當今價格比當時已經(jīng)翻了兩番還多，意見確成了買入。
這個地方，似乎不符合常識。
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【 · 原創(chuàng):茅臺03 2006-04-06 17:15 】
w811880：你好！謝謝你的質疑，我之前在其他貼中說過，這個表格的設計是想結合最佳的基本面買賣時點而做的，所以在其中特別重視成長點的起跳，揉進了較大的權重，你可以觀察到，它給出回避意見的時候茅臺的銷售增長只有2.09%，凈利潤增長僅5.63%，所以電腦就給出了回避意見。雖然從企業(yè)的層面上來說，你可能認為這不合常識，但從二級市場來講，還是符合股價的催化因素的。當然，這些都是我設定指標電腦自動得出的，肯定有不靈活和不全面的地方，僅做參考吧。：）
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【 · 原創(chuàng):聽者 2006-04-06 21:16 】
3Q!
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【 · 原創(chuàng):隱市 2006-07-26 16:42 】
好強的財務分析能力，隱市很佩服。一直沒有看別人帖子的習慣，所以與良師益友晚識了一年，甚為遺憾。
請問“茅臺03”是作什么工作的？能提供聯(lián)系方式給我嗎？
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【 · 原創(chuàng):隱市 2006-07-26 16:45 】
郵箱：LDB1816@yahoo.com.cn
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【 · 原創(chuàng):wlone 2006-07-26 17:44 】
隱市,茅臺兄的聯(lián)系方式其他貼里都有的啊.我給你轉貼過來吧,,MSN是maotai03@hotmail.com,郵箱是maotai03@sohu.com
你的貼我有看, 隱市兄也是高手啊, 能介紹兩大高手相識,很榮幸.
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【 · 原創(chuàng):茅臺03 2006-07-28 08:50 】
隱市兄好，我的情況在其他貼中也有提及，兄臺一看便知，wlone貼的資料沒錯，您可以按此聯(lián)系，非常高興能認識您，歡迎經(jīng)常交流！另外，謝謝wlone兄的熱情代答。：）
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