中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)《印度斯坦時(shí)報(bào)》6月21日新德里報(bào)道，若印度不從石油向天然氣轉(zhuǎn)型并采取節(jié)能措施，未來10年內(nèi)該國(guó)年度能源進(jìn)口額或?qū)⒎?300億美元。

根據(jù)一份高盛報(bào)告，受經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、工業(yè)化與城市化水平提升影響，印度未來10年內(nèi)年度能源進(jìn)口額將從目前的1200億美元增加至2300億美元。報(bào)告還稱，進(jìn)行石油向天然氣轉(zhuǎn)型，并采取節(jié)能措施將顯著減少國(guó)家能源進(jìn)口。

印度因不能生產(chǎn)足夠的能源滿足其需求而面臨能源挑戰(zhàn)。2013-2014年，印度能源凈進(jìn)口額為其GDP的6.3%。報(bào)告指出，“印度人口占全球1/5，但能源僅占1/30。”

高盛報(bào)告稱：“能源領(lǐng)域改革可在2022-2023年將印度的年度能源進(jìn)口額減少400億美元。如進(jìn)行改革，其能源進(jìn)口額將從目前占GDP的6.3%下降至4%?！?/p>

報(bào)告進(jìn)一步指出，若印度未來10年中能將能源效率提升15%，至2022-23年時(shí)每年可節(jié)省320億美元。

此外，減少能源進(jìn)口在GDP中所占比例還能幫助印度減少結(jié)構(gòu)性賬目赤字，反過來對(duì)中期貨幣也會(huì)產(chǎn)生積極影響。

詹樂乾 摘譯自《印度斯坦時(shí)報(bào)》，2014-6-23

原文如下：

India’s Energy import bill may hit $230 bn in 10 yrs

India’s annual energy import bill could almost double to $230 billion in the next decade if India does not switch from oil to natural gas and improves conservation activities.

According to a Goldman Sachs report, the country’s annual energy imports in the next decade could go up to $230 billion from $120 billion currently, driven by economic growth, greater industrialisation and urbanisation. The report added that measures like switching from oil to natural gas and improving conservation activities can reduce energy imports of the country significantly.

India is facing energy challenges as the country doesn’t produce enough to meet its needs. In 2013-14, India’s net energy imports were 6.3% of its gross domestic product (GDP). The report noted, “India has a fifth of the world’s population, but only a 30th of its energy”.

“Reforms in the energy sector could reduce India’s annual energy import bill by $40 billion by 2022-2023. Energy imports in a reform scenario could come down to about 4% of GDP, from 6.3% of GDP currently,” Goldman Sachs said.

The report further said if India improves energy efficiency by 15% over the next decade, it could save $32 billion per annum by 2022-23.

Moreover, the reduction in energy imports as a share of GDP could help India reduce its current account deficit on a structural basis, which in turn could be positive for the currency over the medium term.