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白手起家的藝術(shù)（The Art of Bootstrapping）
原文作者：Guy Kawasaki 譯者：拙塵 有人曾經(jīng)對我說，一個創(chuàng)業(yè)者得到風險投資的幾率如同在一個晴天下站在游泳池里被閃電擊中一樣。這種比喻仍然是過于樂觀了。 你可能因為某些所謂的原因而無法籌集到任何資金：你們不是一個“令人信服”的團隊，沒有“令人信服”的技術(shù)，不在一個“令人信服”的市場里；或者你的公司根本就不具備“風險投資的潛質(zhì)”——也就是說沒有可能上市或者被巨資收購；再或者你的組織由于政府或環(huán)境的因素而無法拿出產(chǎn)品。那么，你是否應(yīng)該放棄呢？當然不！ 我可以舉出例子來說明，對于多數(shù)的公司來說，太多的錢比太少的錢更糟糕——這并不是說我不想有一天能運行超級碗（Super Bowl）這樣的商業(yè)活動。但是直到那天來臨前，成功的關(guān)鍵還是白手起家（bootstrapping）。這個詞來源于德國故事《吹牛大王歷險記》，故事的主人公拉著自己的鞋后跟把自己從海里提了出來。下面是一些白手起家的藝術(shù)： 1．注重現(xiàn)金流而不是盈利性（Focus on cash flow, not profitability）。理論上講，利潤是生存的關(guān)鍵。問題是，理論不能用來付帳單。在現(xiàn)實中，你是用現(xiàn)金來付賬單的，所以請把重點放在現(xiàn)金流上。如果你將是白手起家，那么你的業(yè)務(wù)應(yīng)該具備這些特點：必需的資金要少，銷售周期要短，付款期要短，以及可重復(fù)增加的收入（recurring revenue）。這意味著你要放棄那些需要12個月的時間來完成定單、發(fā)貨和收賬的大單?，F(xiàn)金對于白手起家者來說，就是一切。 2．自底向上的預(yù)測（Forecast from the bottom up）。很多創(chuàng)業(yè)者進行自頂向下的預(yù)測：“美國有1億5千萬輛汽車。就算在第一年里只有1％的汽車裝了我們的衛(wèi)星收音系統(tǒng)，那就是150萬套系統(tǒng)。”而自底向上的預(yù)測是這樣的：“在第一年里，我們能夠開設(shè)10個安裝點。每個安裝點平均每天安裝10套系統(tǒng)的話，第一年的銷售量將是 10個安裝點 × 10套/天/安裝點 × 240天 = 24000 套。”24000和自頂向下中的150萬保守估計仍然相去甚遠。你們覺得哪一個更有可能實現(xiàn)呢？ 3．先發(fā)貨，再測試（Ship, then test）。我已經(jīng)聽到批評的聲音了：“你怎么能夠建議發(fā)送那些并不完美的貨品呢？”等等，等等。“完美”（perfect）是“足夠好”（good enough）的敵人。當你的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)足夠好時，盡快向客戶提交他們，以獲得現(xiàn)金的流入。而且，花費更多的時間并不能保證完美性，只會產(chǎn)生更多不需要的功能。發(fā)貨后，你也能了解到客戶需要你真正解決什么問題。當然，這需要在你的信譽和現(xiàn)金流中做一個折衷：你當然不能向客戶發(fā)送一堆垃圾，但也不能等待你的產(chǎn)品變得完美無瑕。注意：那些同生命科學(xué)有關(guān)的公司，請忽略這一條建議。 4．忘掉所謂“令人信服”的團隊（Forget the “proven” team）。令人信服的團隊要求太高——特別是大多數(shù)人把這定義為一群在過去十年里為超級大公司工作的人們。這些人，習慣了某種特定的生活方式，但絕不是白手起家的生活方式。聘用那些年輕、便宜、渴望工作的人，那些上手快但并不一定有全面經(jīng)驗的人（people with fast chips, but not necessarily a fully functional instruction set）。當你實現(xiàn)了可觀的現(xiàn)金流后，再聘用那些資深的管理者。在那之前，請使用那些你能夠負擔得起的人，并把他們培養(yǎng)成優(yōu)秀的雇員。 5．從服務(wù)開始做起（Start as a service business）。假如你的想法是要最終成立一個軟件公司，讓人們花錢買你的軟件。這是一個很清晰的業(yè)務(wù)并且有完善的商業(yè)模式。但是，在完成你的軟件之前，你還可以提供基于你的中期產(chǎn)品的咨詢服務(wù)等。這樣做有兩個好處：立即的收入和真正的客戶測試。一旦你的軟件經(jīng)受住了各種各樣的測試和考驗，你就可以把公司轉(zhuǎn)換為產(chǎn)品型了。 6．注重功能而不是形式（Focus on function, not form）。我喜歡好的“形式”。MacBooks；Audis；Graf skates；Bauer sticks；Breitling watches。你還可以舉出很多。但是白手起家者在買東西時，注重的是功能而不是形式。上面那些形式，相應(yīng)的功能分別是：計算；從點A移動到點B；滑冰；滑雪；了解時間。這些功能并不要求我所喜愛的那些昂貴的形式。椅子就是用來讓你的屁股坐在上面的；它并不需要看上去屬于哪個現(xiàn)代藝術(shù)的博物館。你要設(shè)計高貴的東西，但是要買便宜的東西。 7．有選擇地戰(zhàn)斗（Pick your battles）。白手起家者們有選擇地戰(zhàn)斗。他們不會在所有的戰(zhàn)線上開戰(zhàn)，因為他們承擔不起。如果你要開設(shè)一所新的教堂，你真的需要一套10萬美金的多媒體視聽系統(tǒng)嗎？還是從一座講臺上發(fā)出的福音？如果你要建設(shè)一個靠廣告收入的網(wǎng)站（a content wet site based on the advertising model），你需要自己寫客戶廣告發(fā)布軟件（customer ad-serving software）嗎？我不這樣認為。 8．雇用盡可能少的員工（Understaff）。許多創(chuàng)業(yè)者為可能發(fā)生的最好情況而儲備雇員。“保守的估計（自頂向下），第一年衛(wèi)星收音系統(tǒng)的銷售量會是150萬套。我們最好開設(shè)一個24小時營業(yè)的客戶支持中心。”結(jié)果怎樣？你根本就不可能銷售150萬套系統(tǒng)，但你的確為此雇用了200個員工，培訓(xùn)他們，并且把他們安置在一個5萬平方英尺的電子化市場中心里。白手起家者們雇用盡可能少的員工，因為他們知道任何糟糕的情況都可能發(fā)生。人手不足，按照在硅谷的說法，屬于一個“良性問題”（a high quality problem）。相信我，當一個創(chuàng)業(yè)者因為銷售激增而打電話要求更多的資金時，任何一個風險投資家都會對此驚喜若狂。而驚喜之所以稱為驚喜，正是因為它們很少發(fā)生。 9．采用直銷方式（Go direct）。在白手起家者和他的客戶之間最好不要有第三方存在。的確，商店提供了接觸消費者的途徑，批發(fā)商們提供了貨品分發(fā)的途徑。但是上帝發(fā)明了電子商務(wù)（ecommerce），從而你可以直銷你的商品并實現(xiàn)更高的邊際利潤。上帝的聰明之處還在于，通過直銷，你能夠了解更多的客戶需求。商店和批發(fā)商們是用來滿足需求的，他們并不創(chuàng)造需求。如果你能夠創(chuàng)造足夠的需求，你稍后總能找到其他的組織來滿足它；如果你不能創(chuàng)造足夠的需求，那么所謂世界范圍內(nèi)的分發(fā)渠道對你來說毫無意義。 10.用業(yè)界的領(lǐng)先者來作比（Position against the leader）。沒有錢來從頭敘說你的故事嗎？沒關(guān)系。用業(yè)界的領(lǐng)先者來作比好了。Toyota是這樣推銷Lexus的：花一半的價錢，買 Mercedes的品質(zhì)。Toyota用不著解釋什么是“Mercedes的品質(zhì)”。想想看，這能為他們節(jié)省多少廣告費！其它的像“便宜的iPod”和 “屬于大眾的Bose無噪音耳機”，都有同樣的效果。 11.選擇“紅色藥丸”（Take the “red pill”）。正如Neo在The Matrix里做的決定一樣。紅色藥丸會讓你知道整個真相；而藍色藥丸則會使你像是醒來時覺得只是做了一場惡夢。白手起家者們沒有那種奢侈去選擇藍色藥丸。他們每天都在忙于知道真相——這個兔子洞到底有多深。一個簡單的計算公式是：現(xiàn)金總數(shù)除以燒錢的速度。因為這可以告訴你到底還可以活多久。就像我的朋友Craig Johnson喜歡說的：“創(chuàng)業(yè)公司失敗的首要原因是死亡。而死亡發(fā)生在錢花光時。”只要你還有錢，你就沒有出局。 以下為原文： ====================================================== The Art of Bootstrapping Guy Kawasaki Someone once told me that the probability of an entrepreneur getting venture capital is the same as getting struck by lightning while standing at the bottom of a swimming pool on a sunny day. This may be too optimistic. Let‘s say that you can‘t raise money for whatever reason: You‘re not a “proven” team with “proven” technology in a “proven” market. Or, your company may simply not be a “VC deal”--that is, something that will go public or be acquired for a zillion dollars. Finally, your organization may be a not-for-product with a cause like the ministry or the environment. Does this mean you should give up? Not at all. I could build a case that too much money is worse than too little for most organizations—not that I wouldn‘t like to run a Super Bowl commercial someday. Until that day comes, the key to success is bootstrapping. The term comes from the German legend of Baron Münchhausen pulling himself out of the sea by pulling on his own bootstraps. Here is the art of bootstrapping. 1. Focus on cash flow, not profitability. The theory is that profits are the key to survival. If you could pay the bills with theories, this would be fine. The reality is that you pay bills with cash, so focus on cash flow. If you know you are going to bootstrap, you should start a business with a small up-front capital requirement, short sales cycles, short payment terms, and recurring revenue. It means passing up the big sale that take twelve months to close, deliver, and collect. Cash is not only king, it‘s queen and prince too for a bootstrapper. 2. Forecast from the bottom up. Most entrepreneurs do a top-down forecast: “There are 150 million cars in America. It sure seems reasonable that we can get a mere 1% of car owners to install our satellite radio systems. That‘s 1.5 million systems in the first year.” The bottom-up forecast goes like this: “We can open up ten installation facilities in the first year. On an average day, they can install ten systems. So our first year sales will be 10 facilities x 10 systems x 240 days = 24,000 satellite radio systems. 24,000 is a long way from the conservative 1.5 million systems in the top-down approach. Guess which number is more likely to happen. 3. Ship, then test. I can feel the comments coming in already: How can you recommend shipping stuff that isn‘t perfect? Blah blah blah. ”Perfect“ is the enemy of ”good enough.“ When your product or service is ”good enough,“ get it out because cash flows when you start shipping. Besides perfection doesn‘t necessarily come with time--more unwanted features do. By shipping, you‘ll also learn what your customers truly want you to fix. It‘s definitely a tradeoff: your reputation versus cash flow, so you can‘t ship pure crap. But you can‘t wait for perfection either. (Nota bene: life science companies, please ignore this recommendation.) 4. Forget the ”proven“ team. Proven teams are over-rated--especially when most people define proven teams as people who worked for a billion dollar company for the past ten years. These folks are accustomed to a certain lifestyle, and it‘s not the bootstrapping lifestyle. Hire young, cheap, and hungry people. People with fast chips, but not necessarily a fully functional instruction set. Once you achieve significant cash flow, you can hire adult supervision. Until then, hire what you can afford and make them into great employees. 5. Start as a service business. Let‘s say that you ultimately want to be a software company: people download your software or you send them CDs, and they pay you. That‘s a nice, clean business with a proven business model. However, until you finish the software, you could provide consulting and services based on your work-in-process software. This has two advantages: immediate revenue and true customer testing of your software. Once the software is field-tested and battle-hardened, flip the switch and become a product company. 6. Focus on function, not form. Mea culpa: I love good ”form.“ MacBooks. Audis. Graf skates. Bauer sticks. Breitling watches. You name it. But bootstrappers focus on function, not form, when they are buying things. The function is computing, getting from point A to point B, skating, shooting, and knowing the time of day. These functions do not require the more expensive form that I like. All the chair has to do is hold your butt. It doesn‘t have to look like it belongs in the Museum of Modern Art. Design great stuff, but buy cheap stuff. 7. Pick your battles. Bootstrappers pick their battles. They don‘t fight on all fronts because they cannot afford to fight on all fronts. If you were starting a new church, do you really need the $100,000 multimedia audio visual system? Or just a great message from the pulpit? If you‘re creating a content web site based on the advertising model, do you have to write your own customer ad-serving software? I don‘t think so. 8. Understaff. Many entrepreneurs staff up for what could happen, best case. ”Our conservative (albeit top-down) forecast for first year satellite radio sales is 1.5 million units. We‘d better create a 24 x 7 customer support center to handle this. Guess what? You sell no where near 1.5 million units, but you do have 200 people hired, trained, and sitting in a 50,000 square foot telemarketing center. Bootstrappers understaff knowing that all hell might break loose. But this would be, as we say in Silicon Valley, a “high quality problem.” Trust me, every venture capitalist fantasizes about an entrepreneur calling up and asking for additional capital because sales are exploding. Also trust me when I tell you that fantasies are fantasies because they seldom happen. 9. Go direct. The optimal number of mouths (or hands) between a bootstrapper and her customer is zero. Sure, stores provide great customer reach, and wholesalers provide distribution. But God invented ecommerce so that you could sell direct and reap greater margins. And God was doubly smart because She knew that by going direct, you‘d also learn more about your customer‘s needs. Stores and wholesalers fill demand, they don‘t create it. If you create enough demand, you can always get other organizations to fill it later. If you don‘t create demand, all the distribution in the world will get you bupkis. 10. Position against the leader. Don‘t have the money to explain your story starting from scratch? Then don‘t try. Instead position against the leader. Toyota introduced Lexus as good as a Mercedes but at half the price--Toyota didn‘t have to explain what “good as a Mercedes” meant. How much do you think that saved them? “Cheap iPod” and “poor man‘s Bose noise-cancelling headphones,” would work too. 11. Take the “red pill.”This refers to the choice that Neo made in The Matrix. The red pill led to learning the whole truth. The blue pill meant waking up wondering if you had a bad dream. Bootstrappers don‘t have the luxury to take the blue pill. They take the red pill--everyday--to find out how deep the rabbit hole really is. And the deepest rabbit hole for a bootstrapper is a simple calculation: Amount of cash divided by cash burn per month because this will tell you how much longer you can live. And as my friend Craig Johnson likes to say, “The leading cause of failure of startups is death, and death happens when you run out of money.” As long as you have money, you‘re still in the game. Written at: Atherton, California. |
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